11am update - expecting some degree of bounce

Well, the bulls have been whacked to begin the week, but there is high likelihood of a bounce into the early afteroon. That certainly doesn't mean we won't close in the red, but the easy bear-money has now been made. Oil is particularly suggestive of upside.


sp'15min

vix'15min

Summary

Most notable aspect of this morning is Copper <$3. That should send terror to the Gold bug community, and all those holding mining stocks.
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*i am holding a small index-long from sp'1564. Will seek an exit in the mid 1570s.


11.25am.. For those watching, the lower weekly bol' now up to 1495..so..best bear case is another 4% lower within a week or two. 

11.33am... market trying to put in a spike-floor @ 1560.

I have to think, good upside into the 1575/80 area late today/early Tuesday.

We have fallen 95pts in barely 3 days, without any real significant bounce!

10am update - where is the floor?

The main indexes have opened surprisingly lower, taking out the sp'1577 low. There really isn't much support until the 1550/30s. Yet, a 1-2 day bounce is still very viable, and the bears should be extremely cautious. Oil is already offering a possible reversal.


sp'15min

vix'60min

Summary

*I won't be chasing this lower. In fact, I'll look to pick up a small index-long this hour, but only if the price action looks stable.

10yr yield...2.62%... next level is 2.75. If 2.75 broken...then 3.40/50

Copper breaks $3    to 2.95.. .HUGE implications for Gold/Silver, and the related miners.


10.03am..well, another wave lower..no sign of it levelling yet! VIX is making a play for the 22s

10.25am..11am is often a typical time for a floor, not long to wait.

I remain on the sidelines, looking to pick up an index-long


10.35am.. am LONG  the indexes from sp'1564. Seeking an exit in the mid 1570s within a few hours. VIX looks done on the 15min cycle.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are significantly lower, sp -18pts, we're set to open around 1574, a clear break under the Friday morning low of 1577. USD is 0.5% higher, and that is pressuring everything lower, including the precious metals (Gold -$14) and Oil (-0.4%).


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Well, futures saw some mild chop early last night, but I awaken to see them under the key low of 1577.

What now?

The 60min cycle remains on the low side, and still hasn't recovered from last weeks fall. On any basis, we could see a latter day bounce from these levels. Yet, from a count perspective, was Friday just a minor'2, with today a wave'3 to 1550/30s?

We'll likely know from the opening 30/60mins.
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I will not be chasing the open lower. In fact, I'll consider a small index-long position, but as noted, it really depends on the early price action, including the VIX.

If the VIX is spiking into the >22s, then we could indeed be in a very severe wave'3 lower.
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Good wishes, for what will indeed be a volatile and exciting week.

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9.25am...set to open @ sp'1577..

Lets see how the opening 30/90mins go. I'm still guessing these declines will not last.

1610/20s..before 1530s...yes?