3pm update - mixed up Monday

The hourly index charts are warning of downside into late Tuesday morning, with a prime gap-fill target of sp'1625/22. Daily index charts are still swaying in favour of the bulls though, and a weekly close in the 1660s still looks very feasible.


sp'60min

Trans'daily

Summary

It remains largely minor chop, with a slight pressure to the upside. Considering we were at 1598 just over two trading days ago, the bulls are holding the gains very well.

Transports..market leader is holding together.
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*I remain largely on the sidelines.

Seeking to re-long @ 1625 tomorrow -if available, although if the mood out there is overly shaky, I'll sit it out.

2pm update - gap fill in the 1620s to come?

Mr Market remains subdued, there just isn't much of anything going on. An early morning Tuesday gap-fill in the sp'1625/22 range seems possible, so long as we close <1648. Metals are holding small gains, Oil is still battling to close green.


sp'15min

Summary

So..there appears to be moderate 'risk' of downside to 1625/22 area. There is a very clear gap there, and its also where the 50% fib retrace is - of the current 1598>1648 move.

If we do drop tomorrow down to that level, and show some stability, then its arguably buying time again on the long side.
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Until then, there doesn't seem to be any point in getting involved.

1pm update - stuck at sp'1647

Market is looking real tired on the micro-cycles. The sp'1635 level looks viable this afternoon, and there remains an obvious gap around 1625. Volume is light, and no doubt that is helping the bots to melt things higher at times.


sp'15min

Summary

A choppy..and messy day. Arguably..one to just step away from.

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If we are trading in the mid 1620s tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how big a bounce we get.

*I remain largely on the sidelines now, and will see how we trade Tuesday morning. Arguably, it remains a 'go long'.

Bulls are without any QE-pomo help until Thursday though, so its kinda interesting to see how the market copes without it.


VIX update from Mr T



It would seem few expect the VIX back under 14 for very long.