12pm update - choppy Monday

With no real econ-news, and no significant QE today, Mr Market appears somewhat lost. Underlying pressure however is increasing to the upside, with the daily charts suggesting upside across the week. Metals are building slight gains, Oil is almost back to flat.


sp'60min

Summary

A break >1650 this hour? Very hard to say. Hourly chart is ticking lower, but daily charts...say UP.
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Way too risky to short..probably for at least a week or two. Bears got to be super patient again.
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I will continue to keep in mind the sp'1625 gap, but it doesn't look like the bears are going to be able to manage that.

11am update - messy morning

The indexes start the week very mixed. Opening gains, then moderate losses, and now we're back up again. Daily charts suggest sustained..and increasing pressure to the upside. Bears appear to lack any power again, despite no significant QE today, nor Tue/Wed.


sp'60min

Summary

There is an obvious gap in the sp'1625 area, yet that simply might not get filled in this up cycle.
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Certainly, its too risky to short, and frankly..going long right now....not today, thanks
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10am update - messy open

The market opens higher, but the gains have quickly failed, with the R2K already moderately red. VIX is a little higher, but it remains a fearless market. Daily trends remain ticking higher, and price momentum is still turning back to the bulls.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

So...a minor jump at the open, but its failed. Hard to guess how many hours this might fall, but hourly chart is now arguably due to fall.

Near term trend is STILL up, but a fall back to the 1625 area looks viable, no later than early Tuesday.
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*I exited index longs at the open. All I've got left is MRO (long), will look to drop that later this week.
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Oil was indeed weak in pre-market, and it looks like it could fall for most of today, even a few days - although that will be hard if main market broadly rises.

USO'60min

I'll consider going long Oil, but..not today.  33.30s would look a fair target.

 UPDATE 10.13am... a gap fill @ sp'1625 looks increasingly likely.

This open really looked weak (hence me bailing), and a fall - by early Tuesday to 1625 looks very viable now.

No doubt some bears are getting a little excited out there, but I think they'll be really mad as hell by the end of this week.

The time for a major down cycle..just does'nt seem yet.


10.35am.. indexes back to green, and Oil snaps back upward.

A real messy start to the week.

I'm reminded of the phrase 'don't trust a Monday'.