2pm update - daily charts not turned yet

The market is holding together pretty well today, but there is most definitely no turn yet on the daily charts. Bears are still in control, next downside target remains a touch lower, around sp'1615/10. VIX may yet get one little spike early Tuesday, 20s still look out of range though.


sp'daily5

Summary

Certainly, I wouldn't be surprised if we are trading sp'1615/10 early tomorrow.

Nikkei futures for Tuesday are -3% (according to clown finance TV), so...the equity bears have that going for them.
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I will look to again go heavy long indexes...tomorrow..as ever though....one day at a time.

*I should note the transports, weekly...

A daily close <6200 would be a problem. More on that later though.


2.16pm...sp'1633s....a close 1635/37...very viable...although that still doesn't preclude a brief Tuesday drop.

Pretty good day for day-traders though.
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1pm update - afternoon rally?

The smaller 15/60min cycles still look floored, and there seems little reason why the market make a run into the mid/upper 1630s by the close. VIX is similarly looking very toppy, Metals and Oil both very strong, whilst the USD is now dropping hard, -0.9%


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

I don't know why, but the dollar is getting whacked, and that is especially helping the metals/Oil to go higher.

VIX looks maxed, and we might be closing this hour with our first red candle.

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*I am long RIG, but will look to again pick up an index long..early Tuesday.
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VIX update...



stay tuned!

12pm update - battling it out

Its turning out be quite a fierce little battle today. The secondary target has been hit on my hourly chart, and I'm guessing thats 'probably' it for this cycle. Transports though is on the edge, a daily close <6200 would be a major problem. VIX is +6%, and looks increasingly tired.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

The smaller 5/15min cycles again look floored, lets see what the bulls can do into the early afternoon.

What would actually shock me right now is if the VIX broke 20 this week.

Those 'doomer bears' out there seeking major downside, need Trans <6100 (to be decisive), and VIX 20s. That would be a clear warning of a multi-week trend change.
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VIX update coming...