The main indexes are still holding moderate gains, with the sp' sitting on the edge of what might be the top of a RS. Bears really need to keep any hourly candle closes <1660. Meanwhile, VIX is occasionally a bit higher, and is warning of possible trouble later in the day/early Friday.
sp'15min
vix'60min
Summary
Its turning out to be something of a slow motion battle at what is arguably pretty key resistance of 1655/60.
I think the VIX is the tell, but hey, I'd say that, right? Long afternoon ahead...
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*I am heavy short, and seeking an exit <1640.
More nonsense going on in FNMA, after yesterdays bizarre waveform price action...
VIX update coming...
12.02pm.. well, there go the sp'1660 short stops. Hmm
The main indexes continue to hold moderate gains. Bears have already been teased with one micro rollover, but there is still the threat of a break into the 1660s. A daily close in the 1660s would bode badly for those short into next week. Despite equities, VIX is holding about flat.
sp'15min
vix'60min
Summary
A close up of what 'might' be a H/S formation on the 15min chart, clearly shows the battle line. A few hours >1660, would be 'annoying' to put it mildly.
ALL daily index charts remain bearish, despite the current gains.
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Perhaps the VIX is the tell right now. Its holding very strong, although yes..from what remains a very low level.
*I am HEAVY short, from sp'1651, and also this morning from 1658. Seeking an exit <1640.
The various econ-data has come in marginally poor, but the market is still largely holding together. Bears just need to contain this morning under 1660, and there should be increasing weakness as the day proceeds. USD is weak, Oil very weak, Metals are strong.
sp'60min2
VIX'60min
Summary
Market on the edge of violating my little H/S idea. An hour or two trading in the 1660s will mess that up.
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15min cycle is probably going to max out though pretty soon.
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*I remain short, will probably hold until at least the latter part of today, if not early Friday.
A short, but wise economics chat...
UPDATE: 10.01am... Adding to existing SHORT position, from sp'1658s
sp'15min...
What you think? A fail here would make for a rather interesting afternoon.
10.18am..15min cycle rolling over..and so far..bears have held the line. Now we need to see the indexes go red by lunch time.
