12pm update - upside into the close

The market looks conclusively floored for today, in what was probably a B wave, and we're now in a C wave. Immediate target is the 50% fib, in the 1660/62 area. Downside target for next Tue/early Wed' remains unchanged at 1630/25. Oil recovering, whilst USD remains weak.


sp'15min

Summary

There is now high confidence that we are in a C wave higher..into the close.

The low Sp'1660s look viable, and no doubt many bears will be dismayed into the weekend.

However, The hourly and daily charts would still be suggestive of one further wave lower on Tuesday..perhaps into the Wednesday.open.

--
Most important of all though, bears need to keep in mind, BIG QE next Wed/Friday.
--

I will consider a major re-short near the close...if sp'1660s.


VIX update.. from Mr T



time for lunch!


UPDATE 12.33pm.  VIX rolling over on the hourly..target is 13.70/50 late today/early Tuesday.

I'd be looking for another spike to 16s by late Tue/early Wed'

11am update - dragged out bear flag

Well, the bears look tired and unable to break a new low. It now looks like we will see a dragged out bear flag stretching into the Friday close. If correct, a C wave rally to sp'1660/62 is the new target. Subsequent downside remains unchanged at 1630/25.


sp'15min

Summary

Baring a break <1635 in the next hour, it looks like we'll instead battle upward into the close.
--

Well, its always good to keep an open mind, and it looks like those suggesting a dragged out bear flag were right (I shall dare cite Daneric as one of them).

It remains annoying how the market down cycles are so brief, and yet the up cycles last 2-3 times as long.
--

*I was stopped out of an IWM short at sp'1639
--

So..whats the plan?

I will consider a re-short into the close...IF sp'1660s. Normally, I would not take a new position across such a long weekend, but the 1660s would certainly make for a great re-short for Tuesday - which has no sig' QE.

Downside target still looks to be sp'1630/25

10am update - no QE fuel

Today is a rare day where there is no QE fuel at 10am to kick the market higher. The bulls had a good bounce yesterday, and we've already seen the bears first attempt to take out the 1636 low. There is little reason why the bears shouldn't be able to control the day.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Daily charts are especially bearish now, and into Tuesday.

The 20day MA is next target @ 1633, I don't expect that to hold.
-

I remain holding short, looking for an exit @ sp'1630/25 later today.
 --

10.05am.. I'm getting a bit restless, am up considering on my IWM position, and I'd like to end the week on a good gain.

stop placed, will probably get kicked soon!
--

10.09am...stopped out of my iwm.

I think my week is done. I won't be looking to re-short across the long weekend, unless we get some kind of bizarre bounce to 1660s.
--

10.14am...there is 'small' chance what we've seen is actually the B' wave....but really, thats VERY hard to guess.

Regardless, I'm done for the week. Now its just about watching for entertainment purposes...and seeing how the market copes with no QE.

10.20am.... 15min cycle looking like it might have put in a marginally higher low...

If so..bears need to getting the hell out here!

I still think secondary target of sp'1630/25 will be hit, but it feels like that is now likely Tue/early Wed.
--

10.29am.. such a borderline situation, but it increasingly looks like the bears are done for the day.