2pm update - and now the weakness

Mr Market is messing with the heads of many today, with the main indexes now swinging back to marginal red. First key support for the bulls remains around 1650. Silver/Gold are cooling down a little, but the daily reversals look pretty decisive. Oil is similarly weakening, with VIX +5%


sp'60min

SLV'15min

Summary

Getting confused yet?

With mid-size POMO on Tuesday and Thursday, default trade remains to the long side..no matter how overbought some might argue we are (as they were in February!)

*I continue to consider an SLV long, late today...or a more safer trade would be early Tuesday.

1pm update - hilarity in the metals

The precious metals saw rather sharp declines overnight, but we've seen some extremely powerful reversals this lunch hour, with Gold +$40 at one point. Silver has similarly reversed. Main indexes remain strong, ahead of Tuesdays next mid-sized dose of POMO.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

The bulls got rattled..and exited..and now the gold bears got rattled..and short-stopped out. On the 1min chart, its pure hilarity as everyone is getting whipsawed all over.

On the bigger daily charts, it does look like we have a double bottom on Gold, and a marginally lower low on Silver. Underlying MACD cycle is divergent, and suggestive of reasonable upside..at least in the short term.

I am still hyper-bearish in the mid-term for metals
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*I am seriously considering an SLV (long) for a mult-day trade, but not until the next 15min down cycle has played out. That looks likely to take until early Tuesday..so there is NO hurry for today on that.
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12pm update - R2K @ 1000, next stop... ?

The Rus'2000 small cap hits 1000 for the first time, the only question is whether 2000 is viable in the ongoing multi-year rally. R2K @ 2K...that IS the question. Meanwhile, the rest of the main market is seeing some moderate strength, even the metals are recovering.


R2K, daily

R2K, weekly

Summary

What to say, other than...'more of the same'.

R2K in the 1100s looks easy by August, the only issue in my view is whether 1200s are possible before some kind of 5, 7..perhaps 10% pull back.

Yet, with QE...even 5% pull back looks damn hard.
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VIX update



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