Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open @ 1648. We are seeing some very significant weakness in the precious metals and Oil again. Gold is -$18, whilst Silver -50 cents, a mere 10/15 cents from its recent collapse wave low. Oil is -1%


sp'60min

USO'60min

Summary

Those commodity falls sure are interesting.

USO is set to open -30 cents in the 33.20s. Anything below the 33s, would be a real problem for those seeking upside.

Relentless upside

Another day higher for the US equity market, fuelled by QE-pomo, and helped along by those HFT algo-bots. Mid-term outlook remains unchanged, with Trans 7200s and SP'1800s by August. Baring an end to QE this summer/Autumn, any retracements will be very minor, probably no more than 5-7%


Trans'weekly3, rainbow

sp'monthly6c, hyper-bullish outlook

Summary

Its getting tiresome, not least for someone who posts on it each day, but the algo-bot melt is merely continuing, with no sign of it ending.


The 'hyper-bullish' charts

I guess some chartists would claim all sorts of 'Elliot wave' rule violations for the above monthly6c chart, but hey, its just a 'best guess', and I don't claim to be following the 'EW book' anyway.

I had a thought earlier, in that ALL price action during QE periods should be labelled as X waves. After all, the Fed has literally destroyed all natural price discovery when its throwing hundreds of billions at the financial markets, so perhaps all such waves should be merely be labelled 'X'. or 'M' for miscellaneous.

Ohh, and I'm not kidding about sp'2500s within 2-3 yrs. Hell, that would probably be a major under-estimate if the QE continues without pause into 2016.


Oil - warning of trouble, or just preparing to 'play catchup'?

First, consider the hourly and daily USO charts...

There is the EIA report tomorrow at 10.30am. I will look to go long USO, shortly after the report is out..especially if they whack Oil a little lower. Daily MACD cycle is ticking lower, but the weekly/monthly still look a little bullish.


Looking ahead

There is a fair little array of econ-data for Wednesday morning. So, if Mr Market wants to play the game of shaking out the weaker bulls, and sucking in the most naive of bears, look for an index floor around 11am or so.

There is big pomo of 5bn on Friday, which also happens to be opex, there is simply little likelihood of any significant downside in the near..or medium term.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw rather significant gains of around 1%. The transports remains a powerful leader, rising 1.9% into the upper 6400s. Near term trend remains very strong, and there looks to be another 7-10% viable across the next 2-3 months.


R2K - almost at 1000 !

SP

Trans

Summary

So, another day higher, one will that doubtless have annoyed a great many bears. As it looked yesterday, the Trans daily chart had a baby bull flag, and was confirmed today with a very strong gain of almost 2%. It is actually pretty amazing that we are now just 700pts shy of my 'best bull case' of Trans 7200s by August.

The Rus'2000 small cap looks set to breach the hugely psychological threshold of 1000 in the coming few days.

*I'll again note, when will the mainstream start talking of 'R2K @ 2K' ?
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Clearly, the ongoing QE-pomo is keeping a strong bid underneath most stock prices, and with no end date yet for the Fed programs, this market goes UP. Its that simple.
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a little more later...