Good morning. Equity futures are a touch higher, sp+2pt, we're set to open @ 1628. However, precious metals are sharply lower, with Gold -$25 and Silver - $0.43. Similarly, Oil is down 1.5%, both are probably being pressured by the USD, which is +0.25%.
sp'60min
USO, 60min
Summary
So, we do have the metals and Oil showing some interesting moves.
On balance, I'd have to guess we close higher today, although yes, the daily MACD cycle is now ticking lower for the indexes.
--
*Oil will open in my USO target gap-zone, and I am seriously consideing going long.this morning.
Oscar...bullish as he often is...
back at 10am
Friday, 10 May 2013
One closing decline does not break a trend
The main indexes closed lower for the first time in a week. Yet, the daily declines were only minor. There are multiple levels of support, and it looks very unlikely that the bears are going to be able to break under the recent key low of sp'1582. So far...nothing has changed.
sp'weekly
Summary
So, a down day...finally, but really, it wasn't anything of note, and does nothing to damage the weekly, never mind the bigger monthly upward trend. It wouldn't surprise me if the market won't even trade below 1600/1597 in this down cycle, if thats even what it is.
Todays close of 1626 still offers the possibility of a Friday/weekly close in the 1640s which would clearly annoy those seeking a major turn to the downside.
I realise a fair few are seeking a downside turn after May 20'th - for all sorts of different reasons. As things are, I just can't see it. As ever though, I am trying to keep an open mind. If we do somehow start trading <1570, then yes, things have perhaps...changed.
Looking ahead
The Bernanke speaks in the morning, as does another Fed bank president (Kansas) - Esther George. No doubt a few in market land will be listening to what both have to say on the current QE program.
On balance, we'll probably close higher tomorrow. The bulls should be very content with any weekly close >sp'1620. As it is, I remain content on the sidelines.
Goodnight from London
sp'weekly
Summary
So, a down day...finally, but really, it wasn't anything of note, and does nothing to damage the weekly, never mind the bigger monthly upward trend. It wouldn't surprise me if the market won't even trade below 1600/1597 in this down cycle, if thats even what it is.
Todays close of 1626 still offers the possibility of a Friday/weekly close in the 1640s which would clearly annoy those seeking a major turn to the downside.
I realise a fair few are seeking a downside turn after May 20'th - for all sorts of different reasons. As things are, I just can't see it. As ever though, I am trying to keep an open mind. If we do somehow start trading <1570, then yes, things have perhaps...changed.
Looking ahead
The Bernanke speaks in the morning, as does another Fed bank president (Kansas) - Esther George. No doubt a few in market land will be listening to what both have to say on the current QE program.
On balance, we'll probably close higher tomorrow. The bulls should be very content with any weekly close >sp'1620. As it is, I remain content on the sidelines.
Goodnight from London
Daily Index Cycle update
The main indexes all closed moderately lower, although the Transports saw more significant declines of 1.1%. Mid-term trend remains to the upside, but there is a small possibility of a very minor retracement. First soft support is the rising daily 10MA of sp'1607.
R2K
SP
Trans
Summary
So, the 5 day bullish streak comes to an end.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for all the indexes, and thus it could be labelled as day'1 down.
However, baring a move under sp'1597, I can't seriously consider that a major turn is now underway. After all, the QE-pomo is still continuing.
a little more later
R2K
SP
Trans
Summary
So, the 5 day bullish streak comes to an end.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for all the indexes, and thus it could be labelled as day'1 down.
However, baring a move under sp'1597, I can't seriously consider that a major turn is now underway. After all, the QE-pomo is still continuing.
a little more later
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