Whilst the headline indexes are only moderately lower, the two leading indexes - Transports and the Rus'2000 are significantly lower. They lead the way up...and they are probably leading the way down. VIX is holding the low 14s, but bears need 15s to start to get a touch pleased.
Trans, daily
IWM, daily
Summary
Those are pretty decisive turns on the Trans/R2K, and if we close at just current levels, it'll make for a good confirming daily turn in the cycle.
The trans chart is even offering a possible RS completion. Target would be 5500/5400..aka..sp'1480s...within 3-7 days.
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Considering the rather severe weakness in the metals (inc. copper), and Oil, I think bears have a chance.
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FOMC @ 2pm..that will be decisive for how we close.
1.07pm... micro-snap on the indexes...with VIX ..new high.
Whilst equities are still holding up, there are some pretty strong little tremors out there. The precious metals, Oil, and many food commodities are getting smashed lower by 3-5%. If the Fed fails to inspire the market with the 2pm press release, equities look set to follow.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
The main equity market is still only a touch lower, and even though the VIX is higher, its still in the 14s, which is frankly just crazy low.
I'm sticking with the 'broken wedge' theory. Obviously, the short-stop for new positions remains 1597. If the market snaps into the low 1600s on 'further QE talk', then it' would make for a deeply disappointing day.
I can only hope the algo-bots get 'annoyed' by the Fed speak.
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*I remain heavy short the Sp'500 , via SPY, and also Oil.. via USO.
I don't intend to exit until late Friday. Right now, best case seems sp'1550s, VIX 17, and USO in the low 31s.
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VIX update....from Mr T
so..they are buying more front month calls
12.20pm... Have you noticed the Trans/R2K, both getting whacked...whilst headline indexes holding together?
The two market leaders...are probably still leading.
Annoyingly...things still look dependent upon the Fed.
Its Fed day, so everything is somewhat uncertain until the close, but at the moment, the market appears to be rolling over on the daily charts. VIX daily cycle is similarly ticking back upward. Precious metals and Oil are seeing some very significant declines.
sp'daily5
vix'daily3
Summary
Lots to update...on what will be an especially busy afternoon. FOMC @ 2pm - but NO Bernanke press conf.
Oil confirming a big turn lower...
If the market does break lower across May, target is 28/27
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11.23am... I really think it can't be over-stated..bears need VIX daily close >14.50. Its not demanding much, but we've spent over a week stuck in the mid 13s.
Its time to see some VIX power.
*Copper... $3.07. A break of 3...opens up a collapse to $2..which has rather exciting implications for gold/silver..and oil..and even equities.
