3pm update - another lousy month for the bears

April is coming to a close, with just one trading hour left. The SP' has broken new historic highs this month, and the VIX remains in the low teens. QE-POMO continues each and every day, and despite genuine recessionary data, the market won't significantly fall. For the bears..April was just another month of failure.


sp'60min

sp'monthly

Summary

April with be the sixth consecutive monthly gain for the SP'500, and the 15'th monthly gain - of 19, since the market began a major wave higher in October'2011.
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For the bears, even the notion of falling 10% looks 'too far'. Even the decline of two weeks ago was a pitiful 4%.
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Bad day, bad month..and so far.....bad year.
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3.18pm..here is something for the remaining doomer bears out there..

Trans, monthly...first down candle since last Sept

Interesting..from the old leader
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3.40pm... AAPL closing the month....net flat, although its $59 above the recent low.

2pm update - bots still able to melt this

Market is holding just a fraction below the April'11 high of 1597.35, but then, the Nasdaq is already above that high. The only weakness out there now is in the Oil/Gas market. VIX still failing to show any power, and a close in the 14s now looks out of range.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Not much to say really. Might close in the 1600s, might not.

All that is clear, is that there is simply no power on the downside. Sure we could drop into the 1580s again, but that counts for nothing.

Perhaps the weakness in the Oil market is a tiny preliminary sign for the main market, but that is stretching things, even for a permabear.


Oil does look 'done' on the daily charts...

USO, daily2

Target would be <32 within 3-5 days
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2.20pm..those bears seeking a weak close, should be desperate to see a clear VIX break, with a close >14.50.. and sp under the morning low of 1586. The latter looks especially difficult.

1pm update - its anyones guess, for todays close

Three hours left of the trading month, and frankly, its impossible to even vaguely guess whether we'll close in the sp'1600s...or in the 1580s. The only real weakness still out there is in the metals/oil market. VIX is still unable to hold the 14s.


sp'60min

Summary

Baring some truly bizarre late day sell off, something we've not seen in a few weeks, April will close net higher, making the sixth consecutive monthly gain.

All is well in market land, but then...its probably just the POMO.

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VIX update..from Mr T



So, someone out there is buying front month VIX calls, hmm.

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The April'11th high of 1597.35...about to get taken out.