Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all closed moderately higher to end the month, lead by the Nasdaq which managed gains of 0.66% - greatly helped by a very strong AAPL. Near term trend is still higher, and there is still absolutely no sign of a turn/levelling phase. May will start bullish.


Nasdaq

SP

Trans

Summary

In the closing minutes of April trading, the SP' managed a fractionally new high of 1597.57. This largely confirms the recent new high seen in the Nasdaq.

Clearly, other indexes are still to confirm the new highs, but with the FOMC tomorrow, there is now the imminent threat of sp'1600s. The weekly charts are offering 1620s 'at any time'..so...bears beware.

Frankly, all the bears have left right now is the hope of a 'dire' monthly jobs data point this Friday. Yet, the recessionary Chicago PMI number today did nothing to stop the market rallying into the close.

It has to be wondered, even if the Friday number is a net loss, would it even matter? After all, QE will then be even more likely to continue, and more than anything, that seems to be all that the US equity market cares about.

For the bears..it was just another bad day to end what has become just another month of failed downside.

a little more later..

Volatility stuck in the mid 13s

With the indexes seeing latter day melt into the close, the VIX naturally slipped lower, closing -1.4% @ 13.52. The VIX has been effectively in sideways chop for the last 5 trading days, which is actually somewhat impressive, with the main indexes continuing to rally.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, the VIX is largely powerless right now.

Equity bears need a daily VIX close >14.50..preferably in the 15s, with sp <1570. Right now, the latter especially looks difficult.
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I'm still seeking a VIX jump...but until those initial levels are hit, hopes of 20s, have to be put back on hold...yet again.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes all closed moderately higher. The Nasdaq was especially strong, lead by AAPL which managed to close around 3% higher. VIX failed to hold the earlier 14s, and it remains an entirely complacent market. The Oil/Gas market was the only weak aspect.


sp'60min

Summary

...and April comes to an end.

The sixth consecutive monthly gain for the SP, although the two leading indexes - Trans/R2K both saw moderate declines.

*SP' fractioanlly takes out the April' high of 1597.35, and technically speaking, that merely confirms the action in the Nasdaq of the past few days.
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more later...on the VIX