With just one trading day left of April, the US markets are set to close another month on another high. The sp' is holding monthly gains of just over 1.5%, and baring a Tuesday daily fall of 25pts, this will mark the 15th month higher out of 19 - since the current grand up wave from Oct'2011.
sp'monthly3, rainbow
sp'weekly2, rainbow
Summary
So..baring a rather substantial Tuesday decline of sp -25pts, we're set to see April close with a green candle on the rainbow chart.
Even more disturbing for the bears is that the weekly charts are now back to green, and we have the upper bollinger band offering the sp'1620s as viable 'at any time'.
If Mr Market wants to obliterate as many bears as possible it'll just keep pushing another 2-3% higher into mid May. Gods help the remaining bears if that the case, which still includes yours truly.
Looking ahead
The big econ-data point for Tuesday is the Chicago PMI number (9.45am), market is seeking 52.4. Bears should be seeking a recessionary number of <50, although that seems rather unlikely.
Frankly, the best the bears can probably hope for Tuesday is a VIX back in the low 15s, with SP 1580s. The following H/S scenario is still arguably viable in the weeks ahead, but even the first target of sp'1485 is now a clear 100pts lower.
sp'daily5a - H/S
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What is absolutely clear, the bears need to claw back into the 1560s, with VIX showing significant power in the upper teens again. Right now, that looks like an overly wistful and classic 'doomer bear' hope.
Goodnight from London
