11am update - borderline

The market has built upon earlier gains and we've seen the Dow and Transports break above last Thursdays highs. The SP and R2K are still fractionally under. So far, bears are showing absolutely no downside power, and with a weak USD, everything is melting higher.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

The daily charts are still outright bullish - especially for the Dow/Trans, and until we're trading <sp'1570, bears are in serious danger.

After all, its FOMC week, and if Mr Market decides 'QE forever' really does mean 'forever', then sp'1600s will be hit.
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Its all very disappointing, but its a long week.. could turn yet, but hey, that's merely a vain hope this morning.

For the big/serious money, the short-stops will ALL be around sp'1592/97.
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UPDATE 11.15am..well, we're pulling a few pts back from the 1592 Thursday high.

Frankly though, can't be even slightly confident until <1570, and that sure doesn't look viable today. Bears just look embaressingly weak.

11.40am  hourly charts suggesting bulls have had their fun for the day, perhaps the week.

Remains borderline situation, and the problem I have, is that even sp' doesn't break 1592, the dow...and transports did.

No bearish clarity, unless <1570.

10am update - waiting for weakness

Market opens moderately higher, but there are signs the indexes will see increasing weakness across the day. Main problem for the bears is the weaker USD. Metals and Oil are higher, but well below their earlier highs.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Daily charts (not shown) are still to rollover, so lets be clear...bears can't be the least bit confident yet.

Worse, any break >1592, and that would really mess things up for my mid-term outlook.

Bears need a close <1570, with VIX in the 15/16s.
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*I remain heavy short, via SPY & USO. Seeking a break <1536 within 5-7 trading days. Primary target is sp'1485, with VIX in the low 20s.
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10.15am.  sp'1590.. we're right on the border again. Anything >1592..and we'll spiral much higher.

Urghh, this is starting to get annoying again!


10.30am.. sp'1592.64 was the Thursday high, and we're barely 1pt away.

Dow/Transports..already ABOVE the Thursday high.

The sp'1600 believers will be appearing all over the web within the hour. I can't say I blame them. This ain't looking so good.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open @ 1586, a mere 6pts from the Thursday high. USD is notably weaker by 0.5%, and this is probably helping to kick just about everything higher, inc' the precious metals and Oil. Bears need to reverse this..quickly..


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So, we're set to open a little higher. Bears need to see a morning reversal, or bulls could get a close back into the 1590s, and that would bode badly for the rest of the week.

Yet, there is a truckload of econ-data this week, so....lets see how today goes first, before waving the white flag.

Bear case late today/early Tuesday, sp'1560s, with VIX 16/17s.

Good wishes for the week!
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9.35am... black candles all over the place. Spike out the weak bears..and then reverse?

I won't be in the least bit pleased unless we get a close in the 1560s..which right now, looks a long way down.
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Long day ahead.....long week.