12pm update - bears need to keep a lid on things

Market is surpassing the upside expectations of most again, and we're on the border of the 1580s. VIX is holding the opening lows (at least so far), with the precious metals the standout weakest aspect of today. Oil is still lower, but well above the earlier lows.


sp'15min

vix'60min

Summary

Is this the capitulation squeeze higher?

What is important is a daily close back in the low 1570s...preferably the 1560s. A VIX back in the low 14s would similarly be useful.

time for lunch.

*I resolutely hold a heavy short index position, seeking an exit 'somewhat lower' by the Friday close.
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VIX update from Mr T.



stay tuned

12.10pm...at the current rate, the 15min index cycles will go negative MACD no later than 1pm.

Anyway..long afternoon ahead, I'm kinda interested in how we close the day, not least since I'm heavy short now. No risk......no gain.

11am update - was that the RS top?

The market has seen some reasonable gains this morning, most indexes up around 1%, with the VIX slipping 5% into the mid 13s. However, all things considered, there is a very significant possibility that this was a RS top. Bears now need a daily close back in the low 1560s.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Well, I've made my move, and I'm actually pretty content with how things have gone. Yes, we've seen a spike to 1576, but that's tolerable.

Bears should hope we can get a close in the low 1560s today or tomorrow. That will easily allow for an attempt to take out last Thursday afternoons low of 1536 - by this Friday.

*I am heavy short from sp'1572. seeking an initial exit in the low 1540s or so, but will adjust as the week continues.
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Precious metals are weak..Silver is sitting on the edge of the cliff, not that I'm inclined to short it here.

A new low would open up the 17s...rather fast.
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UPDATE 11.22am.. sp'1577s...although the VIX is holding above the earlier lows.

I was looking at the Transports & R2K, those hourly cycles should 'in theory' be levelling out across the next few hours, and then first signs of a turn lower near the close. 
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11.37am, well the next obvious soft resistance is the 1580 level..barely 1% from the all time highs.

Bears sure don't want to see a close in the 1580s..no matter how 'generally' bearish the weekly charts still are.
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10am update - in the target zone

Mr Market opens moderately higher, and we're back in the low sp'1570s. VIX is back in the 13s, and currently showing no sign of levelling out. USD is holding moderate gains, and is probably putting some downside pressure on commodities.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Standing by for a major re-short. Eyes on the 5/15min sp and VIX cycles.

Kinda exciting huh?
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10am...I'm now SHORT the indexes @ 1572.

10.08am....so, I'm short, seeking first exit target at the lower bollinger - hourly chart..currently 1536, but that will probably rise to the 1545/50 area by Thur/Friday.

Bears should be seeking a green VIX close, that'd be a very good sign.

VIX'15min

Arguably close to a floor. Certainly...NO turn yet...but its right in the target zone of the mid 13s.

Those looking to buy TVIX, well, now is about the time, with good stops, not least at the sp'1597 level, if bulls are going to magically achieve that..which I can't imagine.


10.25am.. VIX holding the low, but the indexes spike to 1576. Hmm..

Bears should be able to tolerate a spike higher, but clearly, a daily close >1575 would be an issue.

All things considered, I'm content with my re-short from 1572, its a hell of a lot better than those who been holding since 1540/30s.

10.32am  sp'1576/75...its about as high as most bears should be tolerating this morning.

10.37am.. VIX looks like its floored, in whichcase indexes should be follow soon enough.