Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. The econ-data has just come in particularly disappointing, and the market is on the slide. Futures are sp -8pts, we're set to open around 1585. Precious metals have collapsed, with Gold coming within $1 of taking out the 2011 low. Oil is similarly sharply lower.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*as noted last night, bears need a weekly CLOSE back in the 1570s.

This is exactly the start I was hoping for, but how we close is infinitely more important.

Good wishes for the last day of what has been a difficult week in bear land.
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more on the precious metals...soon

*I need to correct something. Gold has NOT yet taken out the low from Dec'2011...

GLD, weekly2,

 In pre-market (so far)..GLD hit  148.34, thats 70 cents from the critical low.
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USO (Oil) is set to open -2%, right on my exit target of 32.80s

This is good, and I'll look to kicked at the open.
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UPDATE 9.18am  sp-6pts right now, and its clear, the bears remain WEAK. A close -1% is going to be real tough.

Nevermind the issue that the old resistance high of 1576 is now going to be support, and I sure don't think we can close under that today.

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9.32am...exited USO at the open...very pleased, and a good way to end the week.

I will note, I do expect VERY significant further falls in Oil in the weeks ahead, but I'm just trying to trade it day to day.
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Bears need a weekly close in the sp'1570s

Another day higher for the main indexes, and if we close the week above sp'1580, it will break the recent 3 week run of blue warning candles. All those seeking a multi-week down cycle, should look for a decisive Friday sp' close -1% or so, back into those 1570s.


sp'weekly2, rainbow

sp'daily3 - fib levels

Summary

More than anything tomorrow, bears should be seeking a weekly close back in the sp'1570s. This would flip the 'rainbow' weekly charts back to their provisional warning status.

*I will note that the Trans, R2K, and NYSE, are STILL holding blue candles, whilst the headline indexes - Dow, SP, and Nasdaq are green.
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The Fib' chart is again updated, and now the primary target is raised to sp'1500, with the 1485/75 zone a very valid secondary target.  Right now, the notion of breaking into the low 1400s in May..seems very unlikely.


Looking ahead

We have a fair little array of econ-data tomorrow morning. There is the big retail sales data, but there is also consumer sentiment, business inventories, and also producer prices. There will also be some earnings data.

So lets see how Friday goes. I can't emphasise enough how important it (arguably) is, for the bears to see the market close the week on a down note in the 1470s.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed somewhat mixed. The Sp, Dow, and R2K both closed around 0.3% higher, but the Transports actually closed -0.3%, with the Nasdaq almost flat. Near term trend is still to the upside, but this four day ramp is surely in the final phase.


IWM, daily

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

So...another day broadly higher, but the gains were only moderate today.

The sp' hit a high of 1597.35, and that will now be the big number for the bears to dwell upon overnight. Was that the high of this near term cycle..or perhaps even a multi-month high?

The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked higher for a 4'th/5th day for the indexes, and there is no sign of the current up cycle ending.

What is clear from the bigger weekly charts, bears need a Friday/weekly close back under sp'1580. That is not even 1% lower, so its well within range, and with the hourly charts as they are...Friday morning (when we have some econ and corporate earnings data) will offer some chance of breaking back into the 1570s..if 'briefly'.

a little more later...