10am update - another tease?

The market opens with moderate declines of 0.6%, but why would they build or hold into the close? USD is again higher, Oil is lower, Gold is flat, but Silver opens down 1.4%. VIX is 7% higher, but its already sporting a black/fail candle in the opening 30mins.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

I certainly won't be trying to chase this market lower, this side of the Easter break.
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The key problem the bears face is underlying momentum is shifting back to the upside, at least for a few days.

Thursday is big POMO, that's also going to make it real difficult.


SLV, 15min

Possible reversal underway in Silver, will need to see the low 28s to be confirmed.

Mixed Signals from Copper and Oil

Whilst the main equity market continues to rally, there are some very mixed signals in commodity land. The hugely important industrial metal of Copper is still looking very weak, yet WTIC Oil is battling higher, and closed especially strong today.


Copper, weekly, 2yr

Copper, monthly

USO, weekly, 2yr

USO, daily3

Summary

I'm not sure what to make of the current action. I suppose both should be treated as independent things, but if the economy is slowing/weak, you'd have to expect to see at least some equivalent weakness in the Oil market.

WTIC Oil is back in the $96s, and across the next few days we're going to see the market start to wonder if the big $100 is possible in the next week or two.  I just don't think that's viable though.

As for Copper, it does indeed look really weak. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) on the weekly cycle is still ticking lower, and there is a clear breach of key support - on what was a giant triangle. No sign of a turn/levelling phase for Copper.


Looking ahead

There isn't too much data tomorrow, aside from the usual EIA oil report, and some home data. Thursday will be far more important, with GDP/PMI data.

I have to believe the bulls are going to hold the market together into the long 3 day weekend. A test of the sp'1576 high looks viable as early as tomorrow, but maybe they'll take until early next week to do it.

Regardless, I won't be shorting any indexes - or picking up VIX call blocks, until next week at least.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed higher, with the sp' settling at the recent high of 1563. Near term looks moderately bullish, and the sp'1570s look viable, with a brief spike to challenge the Oct'2007 intra-day high of 1576. A moderate decline of 5-7% is expected across April/May


IWM

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

The daily charts should really concern the bears who were getting moderately excited just yesterday morning.

The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is complete - on the downside, and we're now starting to tick higher again.

On any basis, I'd have to guess we tick upward for the next 2-4 days...minimum..and that gets the bulls to next Tues/Wednesday.

It would seem the market will test the Oct'2007 high of sp'1576, where we could see a VERY sharp intra-day reversal. On the flip side, I suppose we could still break into the 1580s, but who is going to be buying at those levels? Right now, I'm guessing we'll see the reversal scenario.

For the patient bears...next week looks to be somewhat promising as a key cyclical top.

a little more later