12pm update - nothing significant

The market breaks (fractionally) the 1563 high, but now we've seen a reversal.  Yet, its really not that significant. Near term cycle still suggest upside into the 1570s. USD remains higher, VIX is cooling down after its mini ramp. Precious metals still trying to climb.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

I suppose you could count this mornings action as a micro wave'2 of sub wave'3.

I don't know, its just a vague guess, but what I do know, I sure don't smell any major downside for this week.

The bears are surely going to have to wait until next week.

*there is big POMO on Thursday to conclude the trading week...and Month. Not exactly bearish!
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VIX update




back at 2pm

11am update - creeping weakness

Market is facing increasing weakness the higher we go. Importantly, the bulls did break the 1563 high, and the 1570s remain viable within the next few days. Bears really can't expect anything significant until next week. Metals are trying to rebound.


sp'60min

Summary

Not much to say, I can't take this mornings micro-reversal as anything to be taken seriously.

The 1570s still seem viable, and arguably, there is no point taking index shorts into the long 3 day weekend.
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back at 12pm

10am update - new highs

Good morning, and welcome to a shortened Easter trading week! The indexes open moderately higher, and we've just broken the recent sp'1563.62 high. USD is moderately higher, with the VIX -7%, back in the 12s. Oil is higher, precious metals 'trying' to rally.


sp'60min

VIX 60min

Summary

So the Cyprus issue is now seemingly resolved for the near term, although it will be interesting to see what happens when the banks do re-open.
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It would appear the market that will trade broadly higher for another few days, and slowly melt into the 1570s.

For me, the only issue is whether we end up peaking in the 1580s.

As I noted at the weekend, weekly charts are all offering significant downside, but that it will likely take some 4-6 weeks to full play out.

Bears need to remain patient !
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*I remain long SLV, looking for an exit today/tomorrow.