Daily Index Cycle update

The main market closed moderately higher. Only the Rus'2000 small cap failed to close higher, with the transports similarly stuck under recent highs. Near term trend remains bullish, but we're getting close to being overbought. Next down cycle likely to start after this coming opex.


IWM, daily

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

A pretty dull day to start the week. I don't expect Tuesday to be any different.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is still ticking higher, and there is no sign of this current up cycle having maxed out.

Considering its opex week, and with two rather large POMOs on Thur/Friday, I can't see the bears have any window of opportunity until next week at least.

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*I holding long overnight via SLV and USO.

A little more later.

Volatility breaks new lows

With the market starting the week in a very quiet state, the VIX broke new lows for 2013. There is simply a near complete lack of fear in the broader market. The VIX closed -8.2% @ 11.56    Today was the lowest VIX since March 2007.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly3, 10yr, rainbow

Summary

Whilst the Fed keeps throwing money into the financial markets, its going to be real difficult to get a sustained climb in market volatility.

We remain in a HFT algo-bot marketplace, fuelled by POMO dollars, and there is absolutely no sign of that end situation ending any time soon.
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VIX in single digits is viable at 'any point' in the near term.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

A quiet start to what will probably be a quiet week. With the main indexes continuing to melt higher..and the VIX breaking new lows for 2013 in the 11s, there is simply no sign of a turn. Those bears seeking a new wave lower are going to have to wait at least another week.


sp'60min

Summary

Not the most exciting of days, but then..its to be expected, in a market devoid of any real people, propped up by POMO fuel.
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*I hold long overnight, via SLV and USO.
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The usual bits and pieces across the evening.