Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all closed higher, although the opening gains did temporarily evaporate. Primary trend remains UP..although from a wave count perspective..this is likely the end of a fifth tiny wave. Primary downside for April/May is sp'1425/00, with VIX in the mid 20s.


IWM

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

So..another day higher..the sixth for the sp'500. Understandably, the bulls can feel pretty confident. Yet, as many chartists have been projecting..this is probably the end of a major wave that began last November.

The issue for the next week or two will be about putting in a clear top..and waiting for a confirmed rollover..and break of support - which by end March is sp'1520.

That's all for the week...have a good weekend.
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*next main posting..late Saturday..on the US monthly indexes

Volatility falls into the weekend

With the jobs data coming in above consensus, the main indexes opened higher..and despite a morning fail..the market once again saw a latter day recovery rally. The VIX was weak across the day, closing -3.6%  @ 12.59. Across the week, the VIX lost 18%


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

The hourly charts show very consistent weakness in the VIX. This matches the relentless climb in the main equity indexes.

A break into the VIX 11s is very viable next week..although I believe it'll mark the low..perhaps 'THE low' of this grand cycle. Impossible to know right now.

What is clear..if the equity indexes do rollover into April/May, -with sp' in the low 1400s..the VIX is going to bust over the big 20 threshold.


*as things are, there is no hurry for bears to be re-shorting the indexes..or long VIX..yet.  I'm considering next Tue/Wed..but would actually think after March opex (Fri' 15'th) is the much more sensible idea.

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

Today was the sixth consecutive higher close for the sp'500. A four month major wave higher - from the November sp'1343 low, looks to be in its last few days. However, there is absolutely NO clear turn..or levelling phase yet. We could easily take a few weeks to churn out a top.


sp'60min

Summary

A close in the sp'1550s certainly looks super bullish. The headline jobs data looks good (well, to those who don't read beyond the main numbers)...and the mainstream are filled with hope for a 'rally without end'.

I am looking forward to seeing the next down wave. I don't expect more than 7-9%..but it should be tradeable across the early spring.
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The usual bits and pieces to wrap up the week, across the evening...

Have a good weekend :)

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*next main post, late Saturday, on the US monthly indexes