3pm update - closing hour..tedium

Low volume algo-bot melt continues. A close in the sp'1550s looks likely..and that opens up a little last-gasp climb to the 1560s next week. The monthly charts offer 1570, but that will be difficult...as the weekly cycle already looks toppy.


sp'60min

Summary

A long week, but its gone broadly as expected..and its always good to at least see an outlook work out.

In fact, many chartists correctly have been seeking this fifth minor wave higher.

Not that the mainstream...not least CNBC have the slightest clue. I can only imagine their horror if we are trading back in the low 1400s by May.

They'll be screaming for increased monthly Fed purchases!
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*doesn't look like SLV will do much in the closing hour. I will close the week..very pleased...and holding no positions over the weekend.

back at the close.

2pm update - afternoon chop

Not much going on after the morning action. Most significant remains the strength in the USD. VIX remains weak, -3%. A spike lower into the 11s is viable at any point, and does seem quite likely if the market can hold these levels into the middle of next week.


sp'daily3

SLV'15min

Summary

Not much to say, its just the usual case of seeing how much the algo-bots can melt it higher, maybe a few points. Sp'1550s is viable.
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*I'll be real tempted to re-long SLV, if <27.90. Real chance of a major gap higher on Monday. 29s remain my 'reasonable' target.
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back at 3pm...I guess.

12pm update - melting into the weekend

A bit of a choppy morning. Initial gains did significantly fail..but with no power on the bearish side (yet), the bulls are very likely going to simply melt this market higher into the weekend. The USD is very strong @ 82.78...the monthly charts are offering 83.50. VIX is naturally weak, -4%


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Yes, the jobs data remains DIRE - if you read behind the headline numbers, but hey..the mainstream are still largely falling for it.

Underlying MACD cycle on both the indexes and VIX remain consistant. Its going to be at least the middle of next week until there is any sign of this levelling out. Next Friday is opex...maybe the market makers will want to pin everything around sp'1550 ?

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*I went long SLV at the open, but exited mere minutes later after a 2.5% snap higher  As an options trader..that was somewhat 'pleasing'. I'm even open to going long again..but only in the 27.90/80s.
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I remain open to starting a re-short of the indexes in the sp'1560s..but not for at least a few more days.

VIX update.  from Najarian !




back at 2pm