The main indexes are holding moderate gains. The lower dollar is no doubt helping. VIX is also little lower, a close in the 12s looks very reasonable, perhaps 11s tomorrow (briefly)..if sp'1560s.
sp'60min
Summary
Suffice to say, it looks like a large multi-day bull flag on the hourly charts.
Assuming the Friday jobs data comes in at least 'reasonable', we'll probably be in the mid 1550s..if not the 1560s.
That'd be one way to send the remaining bears into a depression for the weekend.
more later...
--
VIX update, from Mr T
I have to say, no clear turn on the VIX daily cycle..yet. I certainly won't consider a VIX buy until next week.
Thursday, 7 March 2013
10am update - morning chop
Good morning. Opening index gains, but market is still looking a little tired. Its quite likely we'll just churn sideways today...as everyone waits for the Fridays jobs data. I'd have to guess we have a very significant chance of trading in the sp'1560s tomorrow.
sp'daily5
vix'daily3
Summary
A choppy start to the day.
Most notable so far, the USD is moderately lower. Its due a 1-2 week down cycle, and that would really help prop' up the market into late March.
--
*I exited SLV and USO at the open (both gains)..and seeking to go long again later in the day.
--
sp'daily5
vix'daily3
Summary
A choppy start to the day.
Most notable so far, the USD is moderately lower. Its due a 1-2 week down cycle, and that would really help prop' up the market into late March.
--
*I exited SLV and USO at the open (both gains)..and seeking to go long again later in the day.
--
Still a green rainbow
Regardless of how you might like to count the waves across the last few months, or even years, we unquestionably remain within an outright bullish trend. The weekly charts are now back to green, and the monthly is now in its third consecutive green month.
sp'weekly2, rainbow
sp'monthly3, rainbow
Summary
Sometimes simple is best..and that's partly why I will keep highlighting these 'rainbow' charts, that make use of the 'Elder Impulse System'.
Despite the 'hopes' of the doomer bears - not least myself, the primary trend has been upward for the past four years.
Perhaps even worse, - and to me, what remains remarkable, is that we've not had a decent multi-month down cycle since late summer 2011 Despite all of the underlying problems..and endless ticking econ-time bombs, the market has been holding itself together.
No doubt, its largely a result of the Fed, the HFT algo-bots, and the delusion in the mainstream that 'everything is gonna be okay'.
A somewhat disturbing thought to end the night....
This 'grand' multi-year up trend will of course eventually conclude, but I'm really starting to believe the cycle peak won't be for another 2-3 years, which at the current general rate of up trend, would mean we won't max out until around sp'2500/2750 in early 2016.
Goodnight from London
sp'weekly2, rainbow
sp'monthly3, rainbow
Summary
Sometimes simple is best..and that's partly why I will keep highlighting these 'rainbow' charts, that make use of the 'Elder Impulse System'.
Despite the 'hopes' of the doomer bears - not least myself, the primary trend has been upward for the past four years.
Perhaps even worse, - and to me, what remains remarkable, is that we've not had a decent multi-month down cycle since late summer 2011 Despite all of the underlying problems..and endless ticking econ-time bombs, the market has been holding itself together.
No doubt, its largely a result of the Fed, the HFT algo-bots, and the delusion in the mainstream that 'everything is gonna be okay'.
A somewhat disturbing thought to end the night....
This 'grand' multi-year up trend will of course eventually conclude, but I'm really starting to believe the cycle peak won't be for another 2-3 years, which at the current general rate of up trend, would mean we won't max out until around sp'2500/2750 in early 2016.
Goodnight from London
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