3pm update - the melt

A quiet afternoon, but as ever, low volume allows the algo-bots to more easily melt the market higher. Certainly, the gains are small, but for the bears..its just relentless slow pain.


sp'60min

Summary

*its not labelled on the chart, but you could argue thats just a large bull flag setting up on the hourly index chart.

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The 'melt' is unquestionably largely due to the bots.

I sure don't expect the SEC to do anything about that...so even if 'somehow' the doomer bears did get their major lower..whether this year..or next...the bots will still be there..ready to melt it all back  higher.
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*Oil..and metals climbing in the past hour..will be interesting to see where they close.

back..after the close.

2pm update - quiet afternoon

The indexes are marginally higher still, but its turned out to become a very quiet day. There is nothing going on, and it seems everyone is now sitting back and waiting for the Friday headline jobs data. Dollar continues to hold significant gains, metals and Oil holding above earlier lows.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

VIX still looks like it'll be trading in the 12s..if not the 11s next week.

Target remains sp'1550/60s..which is easily viable. The big issue is whether we'll just keep on melting up into April..before having our first chance of a 10% down wave.

There ARE many bearish issues out there, but as I keep noting..the relentless daily dose of POMO remains a real problem for those seeking multi-week downside.

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I am back on the Silver train...and will also hold long Oil too.

SLV,daily2

I have to think, the low 29s are very reasonable target.

back at 3pm

12pm update - slow melt

The market is probably merely consolidating before more late day melt upward. There is simply no reason for the current move not to continue for at least a further 3-5 trading days. Dollar is higher, although precious metals snapped higher earlier. Oil is recovering after EIA report.


SLV, daily2

USO, daily2

Summary

With the econ-data coming in at least 'reasonable', underlying trend is being supported by the data.

I am open to an equity decline this spring, even as low as the low 1400s, but with continuing support from the Fed...it really is looking just so very difficult.
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*I'm finding it too annoying to go long indexes, so I'm meddling in commodities instead. Bailed on Silver earlier, might re-long later in the day. Am long Oil this morning..if only for a 'near term' minor rally.
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VIX update, from Mr P.




back at 2pm