3pm update - running the bear stops

A minor up cycle, and many of the bear short-stops will be getting triggered. Dollar remains a touch lower, with Oil and precious metals still weak. Bulls should be seeking a close >sp'1525. The VIX is decaying this afternoon..it doesn't bode well for the bears.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

The VIX is probably the tell of the day. An opening black candle, often a sign the bears are failing from the open.

VIX 11s look viable if sp'1550/60....the only issue is whether VIX single digits will occur before the next major down cycle in April/May.

back after the close

2pm update - miners under severe pressure

Market remains largely in a holding pattern. Most notable though, the mining sector which is seeing some severe weakness. Dollar is a touch lower, but Oil is now under the important $90 threshold. Copper again briefly broke the 3.50 level. Mr Deflation is..lurking.


Hecla (HL), daily

FCX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

Main market is largely mute...so, I thought the miners deserved to be highlighted.

How low might HL go, not least if Silver <20 ? HL @ $1 ?   FCX, $15 ?

If the deflationists are right, then despite the fed printing 1trn a year, its not enough to offset the underlying vapourisation of digital $.

So far today, the break in Oil <$90 is the second warning - after Copper, that Mr Deflation is still out there.
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more on the miners later.

12pm update - quiet Monday

There really isn't any clear direction today. Main indexes are flipping red/green/red..but its all minor noise. Dollar is flat - but holding last weeks big gains, with the metals showing a touch of weakness VIX has failed to hold the opening minor gains.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

It really is a bit of a dull day. No reason to expect the rest of the day will be any different, although of course underlying bias is to the upside - via algo-bot melt, fuelled by POMO $.
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Perhaps tomorrow will offer something.
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I expect higher index levels by the end of the week, perhaps 1540s.. on perceived 'good' jobs data.

I'm sitting on the sidelines.

A major re-short around sp'1550/60 would be a far more 'comfortable' level.

back at 2pm.
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VIX UPDATE...