3pm update - minor battle into the close

With one hour left, its now a battle as to whether the bears achieve their first minor victory since the end of last December. VIX remains in the 14s, a close in the 15s now looking unlikely. Most notable aspect of the day, $ gains of 0.5% or so.


sp'60min

Summary

Bears really could do with a close <1500, it'd be very useful.

back after the close...

2pm update - VIX spike into the close?

Mr Market has actually managed to consolidate intra-day declines of almost 1%. With two hours left, could we even close at the lows of the day? A VIX spike into the 15s seems reasonable late today/early Tuesday.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

So, the declines are holding, and the talk will indeed now swing to 'how much'?

The rising 50 day MA in the sp'1450s would be a natural level.

Fib charts offer somewhere in the 1470/55 area.
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Dollar strength today..maybe another 1.5% or so...and USD will likely get stuck around 80.50.
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Eyes to the VIX, looking for a spike into the close and/or early tomorrow. 15s..even 16.50 on an opening gap higher.

12pm update - another bear tease

The market is teasing the bears yet again. Almost a 1% decline for the main indexes, with the VIX +11% - but still in the lowly 14s. 2012 was one giant tease to the doomer bears..2013 won't likely be any better.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Its still kinda dull, isn't it? Not even 1% yet, after a climb from 1398 to 1514 across 5 weeks.

A tiresome..tease, that's what this is.
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Best bear case...VIX 17/18..with sp'1460s....that's the best the bears can hope for..before the next major ramp..into the mid sp'1550s...and beyond.
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I await a Valentines day bear massacre...go see the POMO schedule for February.

Any doubts? I refer you to the daily index charts from Aug 2010 to may 2011. Go stare at those for a few hours.

time for lunch
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Update - VIX sonar report




back at 2pm