11am update - still not enough power

The bears are still embarrassingly weak. Six trading weeks....and still can't get a decline - even briefly. of 1%. VIX is 8% higher..but still in the 13s. Dollar is higher...but the metals are showing a little strength, Gold is already back to green.


sp'60min4 - retracement fib levels

VIX'60min

Summary

Even if we do break <1500, we'll get stuck around 1495, and then a multi-hour bounce to what...1505/10?

Its just no good for the bears when the declines are barely 1%..and then the POMO $ will kick in later today.
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From the bearish side of things, its still a waste of time.

10am update - still can't fall 1%

The market is moderately lower by around 0.5-0.7% on most indexes. This is still pretty lame though, and the bears can't get confident about the much elusive retracement. The short term hourly cycle is likely to hit a brick wall around 1495.  VIX is higher, but still crazy low.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

So, lets be clear...

Its nothing to get excited about..yet.

Bears haven't seen a 1% decline on the main indexes in SIX trading weeks.
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A move to the 1460s seems the 'very best' bear case right now. The notion of going any lower than that before the early summer is likely nothing less than nonsense talk.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, with sp -6pts, we're set to open around 1507. The dollar is noticeably higher, +0.4% @ DXY 79.46, with the metals naturally lower. Factory orders data at 10am will probably be the excuse the market needs to pick a direction...and run with it.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

So, we're likely to open a little lower, but we're still a good 5-7pts above the big 1500 level.

There is simply no power on the downside..yet.

Even a close <1500 would not entirely inspire me to believe that a retracement is underway, not least after last weeks teasing 2 day micro pull back.

*watch for those factory orders @ 10am.

good wishes for the week ahead