Closing Brief

A little weakness in the closing hour, and its possible that the bear flag I had suggested has already now been confirmed.  The VIX crossing back to green into the close was a further small positive sign for the bears.


Dow

SP

Trans

Summary

A pretty mess closing few minutes, and it sure looked like 'someone' wanted to pin the sp @ 1500 to close the first month of the year.

Regardless, we didn't close @ 1500, but the daily close is certainly a little disappointing for the bears.

The index cycles go negative cycle tomorrow, so...either we see our first 0.75/1.25% move lower tomorrow...or this down cycle is dead on arrival.

more later...

3pm update - bear flag on the hourly?

If a retracement is indeed underway, then what we're seeing right now are little bear flags develop on the hourly index charts. VIX is holding together - with an appropriate, and contrary bull flag. Metals remain weak, with Gold -$13


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Tis the last trading hour of January. We're almost one month down already on the year!

I do hope the bear flags are indeed just that. If so, they probably count as a minute'2, and thus we should indeed see a major move lower - with the indexes going negative MACD cycle.

The price action to start February..and lead into the weekend will be VERY important.

*Bears need to close the week <sp'1490, with VIX in the 15s.

--
back after the close

2pm update - tough to build downside momentum

Once again we're reminded just how hard it is it for the bears to get any downside momentum. A mere 4-5pts lower on the sp', and now we're back to evens, with the Trans/Rus'2000 showing upside of 0.3 and 0.7% respectively.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Trans'daily

Summary

Two hours to go, which is plenty of time to still swing lower, and close at the lows of the day, but...it ain't looking so great is it?

Bears need to a clean break below what is an accelerated channel on ALL indexes, not least the transports. On the sp', that would be <1490

VIX is still holding together..and rising in a slow stair step higher, but is VIX 15/16 going to be all the bears get before another few weeks of dismal slow motion algo-bot ramp?

Stay tuned.