12pm update - trying to break lower

A failed attempt to rally higher, and the bears have a window...they'd better not fail to seize this opportunity. A close <sp'1495 is arguably essential to build at least a little downside momentum for tomorrow..and early next week. The VIX is so far showing no power though...whilst the metals continue to get the hammer.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Nothing particularly dynamic so far.

Best bear case for the close..sp<1490/95..with VIX in the upper 14s.
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Gold weak..and looking like 158s going to fail to hold..with a wash-out next week to 155/54.

VIX video...from Mr T



time for lunch
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UPDATE 1pm  transports still holding within the broad up channel.

Target for the tranny would be 5500/5400 next week.

11am update - battling it out

Its turning into a battle this morning. Despite the arguably 'great' PMI number, the bulls can't ramp this market more than 0.2%. Metals are taking the hammer, with Mr $ seeing yet further weakness. The VIX is red, but its managing to hold the 14s.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Look at the MACD (blue bar histogram) on the sp' daily, we're set to go negative cycle tomorrow. So..those bears seeking some more dynamic action, prime time will be tomorrow.

Frankly, if we dont see a 1% fall tomorrow, with VIX in the 15s, I'm going to be very concerned that the retracement - as highly suggested by the Trans/R2K declines yesterday, is just another tease. We'll soon find out.

I remain on the short side, with a major VIX long position from the low 12s. Seeking 16s.
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GLD looks set to break the 158 low early next week.

That'll give the gold-bugs a good scare!

10am update - lousy open for the bears

Minor opening declines, but with the Chicago PMI coming in much better than expected, with an absolutely non-recessionary 55.6 reading, the market now has an excuse to challenge the recent 1509 high. Bears...are once again in serious trouble, and it ain't even lunch time.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Any of the serious bear money should probably be running for the hills now.

After all, the micro-cycles all look floored, and we're now set to see another 2-4 hours higher.

A very bad opening 30mins for those short.
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