Closing Brief

Yet another late day ramp, fuelled by POMO, and aided by the algo-bots, helped to conclude another embarrassing failure for the bears. The VIX lost almost all of the earlier gains, and confirms the complete lack of fear amongst the mainstream. After all, everything is fine..right?


dow'60min

sp'60min

trans'60min

Summary

As I noted last night, all those hoping for major index declines - after AAPL was down $50 in AH trading yesterday, were likely going to be disappointed.

*The metals closed especially weak, with the $ a touch higher.
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Today's close is unquestionably another failure for the bears. The upside momentum - fuelled by POMO, is just so damn strong, its going to be extremely difficult to get a single 1% index decline any time soon, never mind a multi-day retracement down to 1450/40s.

Despite saying that, I am comfortably holding a VIX call block from the low 12s (from last Friday). VIX spiking into the 16s still seems likely at some point in the near term.
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The usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - late day ramp to upset the bears?

Once again the underlying strength is showing through. The SP' is trying to claw back to the 1500 level. The VIX is still holding marginally significant gains of 6%, but those could easily be negated if the market closes back in the sp'1500s.


sp'daily5

vix'daily3

Summary

Despite the threat of a late day ramp - as has occured for most of the last 3 weeks, surely we are finally due a minor pull back?
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I'm guessing the VIX has indeed floored in the low 12s across the last few days, and a move to the low 16s is viable in 2 or 3 trading days.

The metals remain weak, but with endless (literally) free POMO money flooding the US markets, a major move higher seems likely into the spring.
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back after the close.

2pm update - turnaround Thursday?

The main indexes are showing a touch of weakness, but obviously, its still nothing significant. Even a drop to the low 1480s would do no real damage to the accelerated uptrend. The one marginally bearish aspect today..the VIX..back in the 13s..with potential for 15/16 in 2-3 days.


sp'daily5

VIX,daily3

Summary

Impossible to guess if this is anything of significance, we could easily see latter day algo-bot ramp - as we have for the past 3 weeks.
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Bears need a daily close <1480, and clearly, that ain't going to happen today, but perhaps..tomorrow.

*metals remain especially weak...and my overall outlook is for a fifth wave lower to GLD 158/55..probably across the next 2 or 3 weeks.