10am update - exhausted market

Good morning. A somewhat muted open, and the hourly cycle would offer minor potential downside later in the day and early Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Transports puts in yet another new high. Metals are a touch higher.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Again, I'm not expecting much of anything today. There is still a complete lack of power on the bearish side, and the algo-bots could easily take control in the afternoon.

Yet the hourly MACD cycle is potentially maxed out, and its possible we might even close a touch lower today.

The sp'1460s look a long way down though, and considering the upward trend - especially seen in the Trans/R2K, its going to be very difficult to break <1470 any time soon.
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*I remain long VIX from last Friday..seeking a spike to the 16/18 gap zone. I don't expect 20s before April/May though.

It could be a very long wait

Another tiresome day of slow motion algo-bot melt upward. The monthly charts offer near term upside to sp'1510/20, and with the VIX in the low 13s, it remains a market of no fear. Besides, whats to fear, the Bernanke is printing, right?


sp'monthly3d - waiting for a red candle

sp'60min4 - the retracement..that might never come?

Summary

Starting with the 60min chart, with another day higher..the retracement target has to be moved up another bit further. Even the low sp'1440s now look 'difficult'.

If we just keep on melting higher into early February - and then get stuck around 1520, any index retracement would probably be no lower than the old resistance/high of 1474. In many ways, that would make for a more natural move.


Where is the red candle?

The monthly chart listed above clearly shows the embarrassing lack of declines since the Oct'2011 low.  Soon it will be a year and a half since the last bearish candle on the rainbow chart, and with the current green candle, it seems there is no real hope of a red candle until April/May.


Dull days ahead

There is very little going on for the rest of this week, so..it does seem likely the current melt upward will just keep going.

The only slightly bearish aspect is the daily VIX chart, which - at the current trend, will go positive MACD cycle by this Friday/next Monday. A brief spike into the low 16s still seems viable, but..hey, I've been saying that for almost two full weeks.
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There is a truck load of key econ-data next week, so..those looking for some kind of retracement - or 'dip buying opportunity', should probably sit back until the middle of next week.

A tiresome day I think..for many.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

Another day where the main indexes opened a touch lower, but closed higher. Once again, strong leadership was seen in the Transports and the Rus'2000 - both setting new historic highs. There is absolutely no sign of the current upward trend ending.


IWM, daily

SP' daily5

Trans

Summary

Well, what can be said?

We have the most incredible rally continuing, lead by the transports which is simply putting in an astounding rally from the lows in mid December, and the trend is actually accelerating.

Lets be clear, there really isn't any ceiling on how far we can go.

The market is propped up by the Fed, with 45bn of POMO money every month, and much of that money is surely finding its way into the equity market. Unlike 2009/10/11...this stream of 'free money' for the financial institutions will just keep on coming.

QE..indeed without end..and we're now probably seeing some of that money significantly help kick the market to new highs.


Wednesday - sp'1500s?

The huge big psy' level of 1500 is viable tomorrow. , and there is easy room viable to 1510/20  - as supported by the monthly charts.
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No doubt a retracement will come, but..considering the strength seen right now, even the sp'1440s now look out of range. If we first go to 1520 for instance, then a retracement might be to merely back test the old high of 1474..before a further long summer ahead into the 1600/1700s.

Crazy talk? Well, I can only suggest you again look at the Transports charts, especially the monthly one.

A little more later.