12pm update - eyes on the VIX

Whilst the main indexes hold moderate gains, the VIX - having fallen from the 22s, looks like its trying to break back higher, breaking a series of six consecutive daily declines. Mr Dollar is holding moderate gains, which is probably helping to keep the equity gains somewhat limited.


vix'60min

sp'daily

Summary

Its almost a bit of a boring day, maybe some more dynamic action in the late afternoon?

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Alcoa is not having the most inspirational day, now sporting a huge black warning candle, AA could easily see a few days lower into this weekend

With still 4 hours left of the day, lets see if we can break back lower into the sp'1450s by the close. A red close would be a good sign that we still have a good opportunity for a retracement down to the 1440/25 zone.
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UPDATE 1pm  VIX still battling higher..

a break into the 14s would be important by the close, along with sp <1455, anything <1451 would be a bonus.

11am update - holding under the 1467 high

Mr Market is trying to break new highs..and a few indexes have done so - the transports is almost 1% higher in the mid 5500s. The VIX is trying to put in a reversal in the low 13s, near term upside is 14.50, possibly spike into the low 16s.


sp'daily5

VIX'60min

Summary

Seeing the Trans break to a new high is somewhat concerning.

Bears should be seeking a Wednesday VIX close in the 14s, with SP back in the mid' 1450s.

*Metals and Oil remain especially weak, no doubt being pressured by a stronger dollar.

10am update - seeking a break into the 1440s

Minor opening gains are looking somewhat shaky. The VIX is offering a potential reversal at the open, and a move to the low 16s still seems very possible by the Friday close. Mr $ remains higher, a break into the 81s would be very significant.


sp'daily5

VIX'60min

Summary

Baring a move to a new high >1467, I'm not too concerned at the opening minor gains.The underlying daily cycles are still rolling lower.

Notable stock of the day so far, AAPL, which remains weak, -$4

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I remain short, seeking an exit around 1445/40 late today or Thursday.
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