VIX fractionally lower

Despite the main indexes declining in the morning, the VIX only managed brief gains of 4%, and those entirely failed to hold by late afternoon. The VIX closed -0.04 to settle @ 13.79


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

Summary

If the SP' retraces lower later this week, a brief VIX jump to around 16 would be the very natural spike high.

Considering the bigger monthly index charts, and if sp'1500s are indeed attained, we are set to see VIX in the 12s..perhaps even 11/10 this coming February/March.

It is indeed remarkable complacency.

Eventually this renewed equity bubble will blow up..but for now...its likely to lasts into the early spring.
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more later...on the indexes.

Closing Brief

The morning weakness floored @ 1456, and as expected, we saw a latter day recovery - although the main indexes all closed a touch lower. With the VIX closing red for the fifth consecutive day, the bulls are most definitely back in control of this fearless market.


sp'60min

Summary

A pretty quiet day. Any bear out there getting excited earlier this morning about the near 10pt drop on the sp'500, should go stare at one of the weekly index charts for a few hours.

Primary trend is most certainly upward, and the monthly charts would suggest as high as sp'1510/20 in February.

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US Dollar slipped from slight opening gains of 0.1%, to close around 0.35% lower.

That sort of action will not help the equity bears. Key level remains 78s.
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Whether we break a new higher tomorrow.. very difficult to say. the underlying hourly cycle would suggest its very possible.
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Bits and pieces across the evening.

3pm update - churning back higher

It would appear sp'1456 was the days low, and we'll churn slowly higher into the close..and indeed, possibly for much of Tuesday. VIX is struggling to hold gains of 2%..and could easily close red for a fifth consecutive day. Metals remain weak, despite the $ going red.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Its not exactly the most exciting day.

The trading range is pretty narrow, and I certainly can't be meddling in this.
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Despite some very notable people still touting 'doom' in the near term, I'm going to remain seeking sp'1510/20 - February, unless we take out that 1398 low.
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*we do have Q4 earnings starting tomorrow afternoon though, with Alcoa (AA), so thats something for everyone to look ahead to.
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back after the close