10am update - bounce underway

Mr Market is seeing a natural bounce, that could take us all the way into the close. VIX could even break back below 20. Bigger targets remain unchanged, low sp'1200s...within a few weeks.


sp'15min

vix'15min

Summary

So, its bounce time, and it will only take a small rumour for the bulls to go crazy and have us trading around sp'1415.

I would be somewhat surprised if we break back into the 1420s.

Just who is going to be buying at those levels?
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*I am back to cash, but will look for a full re-short, later today.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning, and welcome to the last day of 2012, although I should already say happy new year to all my Asia readers ! Futures are as expected, we're opening around the levels seen from last Fridays after hours session. The sp' is -10pts, and we're set to open around sp'1392/90..somewhere just over the 200 day MA.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

So, it looks like we're going to open in the low sp'1390s. This is good, and is our first break below 1400 since Dec'5th.


What am I doing today ?

I need to rollover some option positions, so I'll exit at the open, and look to re-short later in the day, but in a further out month.

Be absolutely clear, I will now be shorting all the way to the low sp'1200s. However, I will try to 'dance' in/out of a few positions if the smaller 15/60min cycles look oversold at various times.

*I have my backup mobile internet now working, so I will be able to post as necessary, intra-hour updates..if price action is 'dynamic'.

Good wishes for Monday, and.the very best of bearish hopes for 2013 !
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UPDATE 8.50am ... I'm not sure why but the market is jumping higher... sp now -2pts..set to open around 1400.

hmm, well, if we open @ 1400, I'll sit back and wait for lower levels. I am not exiting @ 1400. 

UPDATE 9.35am  CLOSED spy puts and VIX calls

I'll re-short later in the day...probably.
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Bounce potential..probably sp'1410/15...but I can't see 1420s again.

Sunday Night Futures update

The Futures have opened roughly where we closed in the Friday after hours trading session.

As at 6.15pm, we're set to open sp -4pts, @ 1398.


sp'daily5

vix'daily

Special note

Futures closed in Friday after hours trading  sp -25pts, and that was 10pts lower than the actual 'real market' close.

So..even though sites like forexpros are currently saying sp+6pts... actually, we're still -4 net.

*even sp+10pts.. would thus mean we're still flat from the actual Friday close.

updates..as necessary...
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UPDATE 7.05pm futures holding -5pts...we're set to open around sp'1397/98.. - which is that key low from some weeks back.

Bears really need a move <1390, for that we need to see -12pts..from the Friday close.

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UPDATE 8.55pm futures holding -6pts...we're set to open 1396.

The hourly charts are very low on the MACD cycle, so I'm very much concerned we'll only decline to around 1390 in early Monday trading..and then bounce.

How high an intra-day bounce?

I'd guess 1400 is certainly possible, but considering 'everything' a red close still seems likely.

Lets be clear, unless you think we're going to new index highs...then I can only suggest stare at the weekly charts I posted this weekend..and what do most of them suggest?

I remain heavy short... indexes.. long VIX, but I'll look to exit at the open.

UPDATE 10.10pm..well, its all flat..futures are +5pts....but take off the 10' from the Friday close...and we're still a net -5.

So, we are set to open <1400, first level is the 200 day @ 1390. I'm guessing that will hold, at least in front of an intra-day bounce.

goodnight from London