Wednesday, 19 December 2012

12pm update - mr market mindlessly meandering

Its still quiet, and baring any news this afternoon, we're set to just meander around into the close. Underlying pressure is increasingly upward, as the algo-bots remain in full control.


sp'60min


Summary

Its possible we might go negative MACD (hourly) cycle in about 3-4 trading hours, we could see a small retracement, to around sp'1425/20. Yet, even that sort of move - across 1-3 trading days, wouldn't bust the rising trend.

Notable stock movers - GE, STX and WDC. For some reason the disk drive makers are back in fashion again. I'd much prefer SNDK though, the flash drive maker, thats the way forward, not those spinning disks!
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Metals remain weak, especially Silver.-1.4%


Special note

The NYSE Comp' has broken the mid-Sept QE highs, the first of the indexes to do so.



I suppose some could argue its just a brief move, but really, as with the SP', until we're back below that rising trend line, its NOT bearish!

UPDATE 12.20pm.. His highness, Obama is speaking about the fiscal cliff, no doubt the algo-bots are considering the ongoing transcript of his every word.

The president must be so very proud of his 'deficit reduction' plan. The sheer audacity of him using those words together. Incredible.
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Meanwhile, the coal stocks are starting to suffer again. BTU is looking especially weak



First target remains support @  25.00
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UPDATE 1pm

Transports and Rus'2000 are making a signifnicant break higher - whilst the main indexes remain largely flat.


Trans, daily



IWM/R2K


For the bull maniacs seeking sp'1500s 'soon', they need only look to the these two leading - and always most volatilie, indexes.

UPDATE 1.25pm Gold - which bounced earlier, now back to -$8



Another $32 to go..to hit the 158 target. Gold bugs going to go nuts if the equity market turns lower (whenever that is)..and takes gold right through the 158 key level.

11am update - quiet morning

Aside from the expiring December contracts - resulting in a few minor jumps in various things, its quiet out there. The moderate declines are to be dismissed as nothing other than noise. Unless we trade back under the recent low of 1413, the primary trend is most certainly still upward.


sp'daily5



Summary

...nothing to add...its quiet.
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GE is lower, and arguably breaks what is a giant bear flag. Its the kind of chart I was looking for with the main indexes, oh well.  I'm honestly not sure what the reason for this mornings fall in GE is, ex-dividend?



Regardless, first target would be the 200 day MA around 20.40

10am update - tiresome

Opening minor chop. Market has no immediate direction at all, although of course, the daily trend is still upward. VIX is +6% - Dec contracts expiring today (I believe). The dollar is close to breaking <79. Despite the weaker $, metals continue to show weakness.


vix'daily



sp'daily5


Summary

So, we're off and running. Baring some news...it'll likely be a quiet day.

Quiet day...low volume...= algo-bot melt. A close in the low 1450s is thus very probable.
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As noted last night, on any basis, bears really can't get in the least bit confident until we take out the recent low of 1413, with a VIX >17.50. I realise those levels are entirely arbitrary, but I think they're pretty 'fair'.

Metals are again weak...


GLD target remains 158

UPDATE 10.30am Minor declines..nothing to be excited about..sadly.



Until we break the recent 1413 low, it counts for nothing.