12pm update - its that time again

The FOMC annoucement is due at 12.30, and lets see if they follow through with their original intent of 45bn t-bond buying - as stated at the September FOMC.In addition to the 40bn of MBS, this would make a monthly 85bn, starting next month, 1 trillion a year.....without end.


sp'60min

Summary

Its time for lunch...but also time to see what the paper printing maniacs have decided.

As ever, the initial reaction will NOT be reliable, and as we saw in retrospect, it took some days to realise that mid-September was actually the cycle peak.

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updates..as necessary !

UPDATE 12.33pm. no surprises..45bn t-bond buying..as ALREADY announced in mid-September.

I find it amusing the fed said 'initially 45bn'. Yeah..have NO doubt, the Fed will be buying ALL the t-bonds within a year., so..that 45bn will ramp to 100bn eventually..., thats not including the 40bn of MBS.

UPDATE 12.42pm.. the algo-bots are triggering the 1434 stops.

Kick em' all out..before the real move..to the downside later ?

sp'60min

A close <1420 is very viable by the close.

*don't forget, benny does a press chat @ 2.15pm

11am update - waiting for the Fed

A quiet morning..as expected. Boehner spoke earlier, and seemed in a real bad mood. That was pleasing to see. Let them all get into a real bad mood, and fail to agree to delay ALL of the fiscal cliff measures. VIX is on the move..and we do have a minor breakout so far today.


VIX'60min

sp'60min

Summary

key levels...

VIX 17.50s
Sp'<1427 - by the close.

A close of sp <1420s would be...useful..and decisively break the 6 day up trend..

10am update - morning tedium

A dull opening, and the next few hours will likely be micro-churn around sp'1430. Bears need a break <1427 by the close to break out of the ascending channel. A move sub' 1420s would be clear confirmation that the six day up cycle is likely complete.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Nothing to add right now, its simply painful tedium.

Things should get interesting at 12.30pm.

Story of the morning. the BDI drops 8% overnight, see Zerohedge.  , but that's a new green shoot of recovery, right?


Where are the VIX 18/19s?

Considering the 'issues' out there, it remains truly bizarre that the VIX remains in the low teens.

VIX'60min

Underlying momentum trying to turn back positive, but really, its to be ignored until after FOMC, and even then, give it a few hours to find a true direction.

I won't take ANY index decline seriously until VIX takes out the recent 17.50s high.