12pm update - weakness..as expected

We're seeing some fairly broad weakness so far today. Even the VIX is showing some strength. A close <sp'1410 would be useful for the bears.


sp'daily5

vix;daily

Summary

Everything is looking on track.

*The VIX daily cycle is due to + MACD cycle next Tue/Wed, so bears should be looking for the first big down move in the indexes (below sp'1385 ?) around then.

The following chart will be important for the next down cycle...

Most important of all, a break under the recent sp'1343 low will be the last warning the bull maniacs get.
-

11am update - eyes on the transports

The old leader - the transports is still leading, and warning of trouble. A break <5080 would be a key break of near term up trend, and open up 5000 by late early Monday. VIX is starting to show some power.


trans'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

We are seeing a little weakness, and despite the attempt at breaking new highs, the market has failed.

VIX is on the move, although I'd have to see a 10% move to consider is anything than 'noise'
-

So, I will keep my eyes on the old leader, a break <5080 would be significant, and would suggest the sp' will be  trading <1400 'soon'.
 --

UPDATE 11.25am We're seeing good weakness in the old leader. The first warning might be triggered within next hour or two.

10am update - morning weakness

Well, we're off and running for the last day of the month. Minor opening chop, and there is the smell of weakness in the air. A move <1409 would be quite interesting, and open the door to sub 1400s.

*Chicago PMI: 50.4, not in recessionary territory, but its still 'weak'.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

I still argue the bears merely need today to close flat. That would be an acceptable set up for early December.

A close <1405 would be a real bonus though.

*Look at the daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, we're VERY close to rolling over, and after 9 days UP - since the 1343 low, we're due down cycle - one that will exceed the recent spike-low of 1385.
--

A long day ahead, lets see how many of the bull maniacs decide to jump ship ahead of the weekend.

UPDATE... take a look at the hourly VIX. Thats pretty bearish for the indexes as the day proceeds

UPDATE 10.30 Look to the tranny, a break <5080 would be the FIRST warning that my general outlook is correct. If that occurs, should see the sp<1400 late today or Monday.