12pm update - eyes on the VIX

Whilst the main indexes remain a touch lower, the VIX remains the anomaly. It is very low on the hourly cycle, and once a turn higher begins, we should (in theory) see a considerable downward move in the indexes.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So...red indexes, but a red VIX too. I'm sure many are somewhat confused by it, but we saw it as recently as last Thursday.

*the fact the $ appears to be able to hold DXY >81 is a good sign for the bears. 82/83 would very likely equate to sp'1340s.

Ohh, and another great day in AAPL land...

*I'm guessing AAPL will level out somewhere around $500..could even be within next few days..which would sync up nicely with the main indexes @ sp'1350/40

back at 2pm..or earlier..if any drama ;)

11am update - VIX acting weird..again

Whilst the main indexes are starting to show the underlying weakness again, the VIX is -5%, and is once again the anomaly of the day.


VIX'60min

Summary

Not sure what to make of it, other than the issue that since 'no crash Monday', there is once again no fear.
--

There IS a clear bull flag on the VIX hourly chart, we'll need a close >19.50 to confrim it.

UPDATE 11.15

Hmm..so..VIX seems content to level out around -5% @ 17.50. If that the down cycle is complete, then VIX should crawl higher, with a potential mini-explosion later today.

As noted, bears should be seeking a close >19.50 to confirm much lower levels in the indexes.

10am update - morning weakness

Good morning, and welcome to another week at the nastiest casino in this part of the galaxy. The main market has opened a touch higher, but its looking very weak. The Friday morning bounce we saw completely failed, and I see no reason why we won't see more intense weakness today proceeds.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Nothing has changed since last week.

Both weekly and monthly charts suggest a persistent downward pressure on prices, near term target remains somewhere in the sp'1350/40 zone.

VIX is looking a little weak, so long as it doesn't break/close <17, it should not be a concern for the bears.

I'm short, and seeking a break into the 1360s later today or early tomorrow.

back at 12pm....or earlier...if necessary!