10am update - a vain attempt to bounce

Good morning. Mr Market is still a little semi-shell shocked after yesterdays decline. It appears we're going to see some chop, with marginal upside this morning.

Those bull maniacs seeking any move back over the Tuesday peak of 1433, are going to be real disappointed into next week.


sp'15min

sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

So, no gap lower today, and we're seeing a little bounce..although in the scheme of things, its extremely small.

I think key declining resistance is the hourly 10 @ 1404. I would be very surprised if we manage to hold above there for more than a few hours. By the end of today, that 10MA will be around 1395..so there is some distinct problem for anyone going long at the 1400 level.
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I remain short, seeking my next exit around 1380.

A long day ahead...stay sharp everyone!

back at 12pm..or earlier if anything happens.

Primary target remains SP'1345

With the SP' taking out the key cycle low of 1397, we saw a second key warning confirmed today. The bigger weekly index charts continue to warn of real trouble in the very near term, and the primary short-exit target remains sp'1345.


sp'weekly2

sp'daily5f

WTIC Oil, daily

sp'monthly, 6yr

Summary

There was so much to highlight today, but I think the above charts summarise the important aspects. We have seen our second key warning on the sp'daily chart (although other indexes have all 3 now),

WTIC Oil saw all of the Mon-Tuesday gains reversed, and we're now set to at least hit $82/80 tomorrow/Friday. That should especially add to weakness in the energy stocks.

The big monthly index charts suggest if we do get a multi-month decline, the obvious target is sp'1200/1175. That could count as a wave'1 down - assuming 1474 was the top. Yet, first things first...we need to see if the weekly cycle target of 1345 can be attained.


A good day

Today was a good trading day, and it sure makes up for what has been a very frustrating time since the QE announcement in mid September. If we can somehow drop to 1345 in the next few days, that will more than make up for what has been a pretty difficult year.

I have further wave/count index outlooks, and I will post them up, once we hit my 1345 target.

Goodnight from what remains....a bearish London city ;)

Daily Index Cycle update

The broader market suffered its biggest closing decline in around a year, losing 2.3%. The VIX - which rallied into the close, confirmed the declines to some extent, although remains under the key 20 threshold. Considering the closing hour action, it would seem there is at least one further major down wave to come, with the weekly charts suggesting sp'1345.


IWM, daily

Nasdaq Comp

Dow

Sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

All indexes are absolutely bearish in every aspect. There is seemingly VERY high likelihood of further declines tomorrow, and possibly Friday.

*I generally focus on the sp'500, and am keeping in mind the importance of the next level, of the 200day MA @ 1380. However, we're already below the 200 day on various other indexes. So, keep in mind that if you consider the state of the indexes as a whole, we've really already broken the last support.

Thus, I am going to focus on my weekly cycles, which suggest sp'1345 within days.

A little more later. There is so much to post on today, its kinda hard to know what to choose from!