2pm update - afternoon chop

Market is failing to show any underlying strength. The bulls have so far entirely failed to reverse last Fridays reversal. VIX is holding onto gains of 5%, doubtless related to the uncertainly of tomorrows election.


sp'daily5

vix'daily

Summary

So, two hours to go, and market has very clear bear flags on those daily charts.

It remains the case, bears need a daily close under the key cycle low of 1397.

If that is achieved, first targets would be VIX 21/22, with sp'1380/75, no later than Thursday.

back 3pm

12pm update - market in a holding pattern

The market is very much awaiting a nudge. Doubtless, the election counts a major trading variable, but we also have other things in the coming days, not least a Greek austerity vote on Tuesday. The VIX is maintaining 4-5% gains...kinda interesting.


sp'daily5

vix'daily

Summary

There remains a significant smell of weakness in this market, not least after last Fridays reversal.

As noted for some considerable time...sp'1397 remains the important line in the sand.

A daily close <1397, and the door opens to a swift decline to 1345/20.

time for lunch, back at 2pm

10am update - first target remains sp'1397

Good morning. As has been the case since the QE spike high in mid-September, the first target for the bears to break is the important cycle low of sp'1397. If bears can close in the low 1390s, it will conclusively be a major sell signal, and open up a fast move down to somewhere around sp'1345/20 within a matter of days.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

sp'weekly, rainbow

Summary

*there is a discrepency between stockcharts and my trading screen, I never really seen it happen before. but SPY' indicates we're actually sp'-4pts @ 1409, rather than just the 2pts.
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An election week, and it was only yesterday that I read the market used to be closed on election days prior to the early 1980s. Hmm.

So, we have opened a touch lower, and now we're battling it out. The dip buyers are testing the water, I think they will need a life raft by the closing hour.


Weekly charts bearish.

We now have the third red candle on the weekly rainbow chart. Baring a bizarre jump higher, into the 1440s, I have very high confidence we're now headed lower across this week.

Special note..
As I posted over the weekend, look to the dollar, bears should be seeking 81s within the next few days...that will open up 84 - which should in theory equate to sp'1345/20 or so.

back at 12pm