Turn the machines back on!

With Sandy now fading away, its time to fire up the machines again, with the US markets all set to open this Wednesday morning. It is very likely to be a very mixed and confusing day, we probably won't have a clear direction of where we are broadly headed until late Thursday.

Lets take a quick overview of where we are...


sp'60min

sp'daily5

VIX'daily

Summary

The smaller 15/60min' cycles on all the indexes are fully reset, and are arguably exhausted on the bullish side. The previous FOUR trading days saw many attempts by the bulls to rally, but all such moves have failed to hold.

The daily cycle is absolutely clear, the bears need a break under the Sept'3rd low of 1397.Bulls need a close in the mid 1430s, which would open a challenge of the QE3 spike high of 1474.

The VIX daily sure looks like a bull flag, with a very natural target of 20/21. Only if the indexes break secondary rising support @ 1375, can I see any hope of the more exciting secondary target zone of VIX 24/26.


Turn the machines back on!

It will be good to have everything up and running tomorrow, but for those bears looking for a significant red close, it will probably be a disappointing day.

We are due econ-data in the morning - Chicago PMI. Market is expecting 51.0 against a previous 49.7. So, anything still sub'50 would count as a real disappointment. All those who believe the US will slip into recession in either Q4, or early 2013 are going to need to see a PMI <50.





A few other issues to consider.

Yes, volume will be lighter in some respects due to some institutions being offline still, but it is the end of the month, and so there will surely be some counter aspect to seeing at least some trading activity as some square off their trading books.

Doubtless the cheer leading maniacs on the clown networks of CNBC and Bloomberg will be jumping up and down with their pom poms at 9.30am. On this occasion, I think I will almost be able to tolerate their exuberance.

Lets turn those machines back on!

Goodnight from London

US Markets to open Wednesday

It appears from a few news organisations that the NYSE and NASDAQ are planning to re-open Wednesday morning.

Another overnight ramp?

After last nights 18pt swing from the ES 1393 low, and with the Zerohedge story on the Canadian market's last hour ramp, it appears we might gap higher 1% at the open of tonight's futures wheel (7pm EST)

So..it is entirely possible we'll be trading around sp'1425/30 sometime tomorrow, which is of course just utterly insane.


sp'daily5

Summary

First soft resistance is the declining daily 10MA @ 1432. A daily close over that, whether tomorrow or later this week would be pretty devastating to the bears.

Having fallen just 4% -  an embarrassingly small decline, are we now set for a ramp into, and post election? Are new index highs due within the next 2 trading weeks?

However, the bigger weekly charts still say 'hell NO!', but last nights action sure doesn't bode well for the bears.


sp'weekly, rainbow

I am most definitely not looking forward to the re-open, as I was last night.

More later, if the futures do anything other than ramp 'to da moon'.

Overnight ramp - indexes back to flat

Overnight futures turned after midnight, with a swing higher of 18 sp' points, we're back to effectively flat on most indexes. There is noticeable dollar weakness.

sp'daily5

Summary

It is currently unknown if we will open Wednesday. There are end-month institutional reasons why some want the market open, and some options expire (I believe).

We might get a 3-4 hour electronic session tomorrow.

Yet, considering the subway flooding, and so many other issues, I'd not be surprised if they wait a few extra days, even into next week.

RE: futures, we were trading down to effectively sp'1399/98 last night, so the important Sept'3rd low has not yet been breached, even in overnight futures.

Bears need to see a clear drop of sp'16 points to break the key level.
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More later...once we get the next NYSE update* - MARKET STATUS

*the NYSE seem to be missing their website editor though, they've not even updated their page since the Sunday night update.
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