sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Well, lets see if some more of that 'selling into strength' occurs in this important closing hour.
Bears really do need a close back under the hourly 10MA @ 1431, that seems just about possible.
More after the close
Monday, 15 October 2012
3pm update - bears need to bring out the hammer
It looks like the hourly index cycles are indeed maxed out, and we're already seeing the first minor snap lower. VIX looks floored on the hourly too. A flat close looks a tough task for the bears though.
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Well, lets see if some more of that 'selling into strength' occurs in this important closing hour.
Bears really do need a close back under the hourly 10MA @ 1431, that seems just about possible.
More after the close
sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Well, lets see if some more of that 'selling into strength' occurs in this important closing hour.
Bears really do need a close back under the hourly 10MA @ 1431, that seems just about possible.
More after the close
2pm update - a little toppy
A standard little short squeeze, all of the weaker bears will have been stopped out by now. The bulls haven't even pushed into the 1440s yet, and I'm guessing only 1450s would mark a clear end to the current 6 day down cycle.
VIX remains moderately lower, showing a few signs it may have floored.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So far today the bulls have had a reasonably little move higher, but its looking like we're in a levelling phase. The only issue is how far does the next micro-down cycle go?
Bears clearly need to take out the earlier low of 1427, which seems rather unlikely today.
With two hours to go, lets see if we again see some 'selling into strength'. Considering we are less than 3% from the QE spike highs, I'm guessing we do.
I remain short, seeking an exit...1410/00.
Back at 3pm
VIX remains moderately lower, showing a few signs it may have floored.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
So far today the bulls have had a reasonably little move higher, but its looking like we're in a levelling phase. The only issue is how far does the next micro-down cycle go?
Bears clearly need to take out the earlier low of 1427, which seems rather unlikely today.
With two hours to go, lets see if we again see some 'selling into strength'. Considering we are less than 3% from the QE spike highs, I'm guessing we do.
I remain short, seeking an exit...1410/00.
Back at 3pm
12pm update - bears getting booted
A really messy Monday morning, minor gains, then fractional declines..and now we're seeing moderate gains of around 0.5% on the main indexes. Is that it for this cycle? The VIX is certainly saying 'no fear'.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
The daily MACD cycle now starting to tick upward, but still 4 hours to go.
Bears should certainly seek a flat close, preferably a touch red.
The real concern is that if today was the low, then the next cycle is probably going to push to a new high, in which case we're STILL putting in higher highs..and higher lows.
We still have a good four hours left though, and could easily see these gains fizzle away. I'm short yet another block from sp'1436 just a little earlier.
Time for lunch
back at 2pm
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
The daily MACD cycle now starting to tick upward, but still 4 hours to go.
Bears should certainly seek a flat close, preferably a touch red.
The real concern is that if today was the low, then the next cycle is probably going to push to a new high, in which case we're STILL putting in higher highs..and higher lows.
We still have a good four hours left though, and could easily see these gains fizzle away. I'm short yet another block from sp'1436 just a little earlier.
Time for lunch
back at 2pm
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