10am update - green shoots..all over again

With the headline unemployment rate falling to 7.8%, its good to know everyone has a job now. Clearly, everything is on track, and we're now all set for SP'5000 in a year or two, yes?


sp'60min

sp'daily5

VIX'60min

Summary

Both the Dow and SP' are within 0.5% of breaking new index highs, which seem very viable today.

The transports and Rus'2000 are still badly lagging, and would take some weeks to break new highs, even if the current rate of trend continues.

VIX whacked lower, to be expected. Its showing a reversal candle this opening 30minutes, but thats not to be trusted.

The daily index cycles are due to go positive cycle late today or Monday, further upside is likely.

back at 12pm

Primary trend remains UP

The close of sp'1461 was another victory for the bulls. We're less than 1% from pushing new post'2009 lows.


sp'monthly, rainbow

sp'daily3 - news to come

Summary

The market is looking for monthly job gains - to be issued Friday 8.30am EST, of 113,000. I'd guess so long as the number is not below 75k, the market will consider it 'acceptable'. After all, things like 'employment as % of population' doesn't seem to matter anymore. So long as the headline number continues its slow descent, the media will tout it as evidence that the Fed's actions are working.

October is of course notorious for sharp downside moves, but considering the style of movement in the VIX lately, it sure doesn't look like the market is even capable of more than 3% downside in an entire cycle.With the daily index cycles now battling higher, the bulls are back in control.

All those touting for year end sp' targets in the 1500s, could see them met as early as next week.

For those currently short, this is indeed as bizarre, as it is sickening.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

Another painful day for the bears, with the SP' closing clearly over the trend resistance of 1455. Bulls are back in control. So long as the jobs data is considered 'acceptable' by Mr Market tomorrow, the market looks set to break new index highs in the coming days. Incredible.


IWM, daily

SP'daily5

Transports

Summary

So..what now? The Sp' daily chart could still be said to have a bear flag - now six days old, but considering everything else, I'd guess its a replay of late August. The bear flag will of course be completely invalid if we break above the spike high of 1474.

The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is indeed cycling back higher, and we're set to go +cycle on the main indexes in the next 1 or 2 days. Certainly, the bulls are back in control.

As ever, its all about perception, and if Market likes the jobs number tomorrow, even if its sub 100k, then we'll just keep going higher. Its a nasty market, one built largely on delusion, inspired by the media, and propped up by the Fed, and gods know who else.

A little more later