12pm update - lousy start to Q4

With the ISM manufacturing data coming in much higher than the all knowing forecasters predicted, the market is indeed up, and we're holding to most of the gains so far.

Considering the size of the gains, its notable that the VIX is unchanged.


sp'60min -H/S

Summary

So, we've hit the upper descending trend.

If we close >1460, then the bulls will surely break a new high across the next 3-5 trading days.
--

Bears desperately need the gains to all vaporise by the close. That seems pretty unlikely. The only thing the bears have going for them right now is the flat VIX.

I remain short, still seeking 1420.

back at 2pm

11am update - spiky, but close to a breakout

The opening market rally is largely holding, but its starting to look a bit spiky on the hourly cycle.

Bulls could do with a break over 1460, but clearly, the bears are in real trouble again. Baring a strong reversal with a red close, this is not looking so great. We're a mere 20pts from the 1474 QE3 top !


sp'60min - H/S outlook

Summary

Bears need a close <1440,
Bulls merely need to hold 'some' of the gains.

*VIX is flat..which considering the index gains, is a little surprising.

back at 12'

10am update - rough start to the week

Good morning. Those overnight moderate declines sure did not hold, and we're up around 0.6% or so on the main indexes. Sp' is close to re-taking the key 1450 level, and a move over 1455 would largely wreck the H/S idea.

VIX opened 3% higher, but is now back to flat.

*Awaiting key ISM data at 10am


SP'60min

SP'daily5

Summary

So, is that it for the bears this week? Another wave higher? Err, I'm still going to guess.. no, but I don't think we can move much below 1420, before another week or two higher.

As has been the case since June, bulls need to hold above the recent low of 1397, and merely seek another higher hgh >1474.

stay tuned!