2pm update - target 1445, time 12pm Thursday

Now that the AAPL iphone5 launch is done, we can move away from the latest media hysteria about what is..just a mobile telephone. VIX remains weak, but is comfortably holding at 16.00, significantly above the recent low of 14.00


sp'60min

sp'daily

Summary

Primary index target looking right on track.

sp'1445...possibly 1450, probably around Thursday lunchtime.

I can't possibly see 1460 under any circumstances, even if the Bernanke does some sort of QE. Watching Bloomberg earlier, the consensus seems to be that the Fed might do some sort of MBS monthly purchases of 300bn or so.

Frankly, if that's what the Fed does, its laughable negligible.

So, I'm sitting it out until tomorrow. Near term trend - see hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is still crawling higher. We could in theory get a snap higher at the Thursday open to 1445, even 1450 if Mr Market wants to cause maximum carnage.

Considering the daily cycle - which is surely close to maxing out, tomorrow could be a classic 'sell the news' day.

More after the close.

12pm update - still waiting

Market seeing some morning chop, but things are still broadly up in the immediate term.

There is certainly no point shorting at this time..or price.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So..I'm just waiting, and considering the MACD hourly cycle is still negative, I will very likely wait until tomorrow.

There is still a very viable chance market will hit 1445..even 1450 tomorrow..BEFORE the FOMC announcement at 12.30pm.

I have no concerns about shorting at the current level, but I do think there is more upside  to come.

The most patient bear...gets the best entry price ;)

Back at 2pm

10am update - on schedule

Its all on schedule right now :) We have all the main indexes putting in further gains, the VIX is a little lower, with the market is looking forward to more printing to be announced tomorrow.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Its looking pretty good for a re-short somewhere in the 1445 range late today/early tomorrow. I'd guess worse case upside is a brief Thursday spike to 1450/60 if QE is announced.

Downside is at least 1420, probably 1400, and possibly 1375 by month end.

For the moment, I am still waiting for the underlying MACD hourly cycle to crawl higher..and then level out.

We might level out by around 2pm or so. If so, I'll likely short near the close.

Back at 12pm