Closing Brief

The market closed with moderate gains, there was certainly a little variety across the indexes. Tech was weak, whilst the transports were pretty strong.

The closing hourly charts...


IWM

Dow

SP

Summary

So, another up day..as expected.

I remain content to wait, sp'1445 remains viable tomorrow. It remains a smaller possibility that we'll see a hysteria QE3 reaction day to 1450/60..brief spike, but that won't hold.

Underlying MACD cycle does not favour the shorts overnight, we could easily gap right into the 1440s tomorrow open, even though the German 'yes' vote has already been assumed by many.

The bears time will come again, but for now, its clearly not the time.

More later in the evening

3pm update - closing hour weakness..again?

Market looking tired again, but we're still comfortably green across most of the indexes. Tech' is a touch weak, no doubt due to AAPL, which is now red again.

VIX is a touch red, and remains very high on its hourly cycle. It is still arguably a bad time to be short the indexes.


Sp'60min

Summary

Nothing much to add...sp'1445 still seems very viable within the very near term.

Only if the sp' breaks below 1425 would I start to wonder if the top is in, for the current up cycle.

Again, it remains the case that we are just relentlessly putting in higher highs..and higher lows, with the recent low of 1397 now the first target in any bear move lower.

So, if we're 1440/45 prior to the Bernanke, and he disappoints the market somehow, we could easily fall 30/35pts, and it doesn't do ANY damage to the primary up trend.

More after the close.

2pm update - I have waited.

Market is comfortably continuing its rally. As expected, yesterdays little closing hour weakness was just Mr Market resetting the smaller 15/60min cycles again. With everything reset, we will probably trundle higher into Wednesday.

The VIX is especially due to fall a fair bit further, as clearly seen on the MACD via the hourly cycle. The bears should look for a higher VIX low, whilst the indexes putting in one final higher high.


VIX'60min

sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

The gains are holding pretty well it has to be said.

The primary target of sp'1445 looks viable..not today, but much more likely tomorrow.

There is no hurry, and lets be clear, anyone shorting now is probably too early anyway, and there is significant risk with another Fed decision just 2 days away.



...I have waited so long...for you...Mr Bernanke..to do your QEeeeeeeeeeee.