11am update - rainbows have the answer

The indexes are showing a little underlying weakness. From a broader perspective, we're putting in a pretty good top on the daily cycle. We're at least due for a move down to the 1360s.

VIX still weak, it sure is a long way up to 20.


SP, daily, rainbow

VIX, daily, rainbow

Summary

The rainbow charts (elder impulse) help to make trend changes a little more clearer sometimes.

We can be clear that on the indexes - all of them, we now have a top, and the first signs of downside momentum.

So far though, VIX showing zero sign of a turn.
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At this point though, both the bigger weekly and monthly cycles remain bullish.

Bears have a real problem until we are back under 1340...preferably 1300.

10am update - VIX reversal

Despite marginal opening index declines, the VIX has fallen 4% lower, almost breaking into the 13s. Note that the low in March of 13.66 However, as I type, VIX is recovering, and currently showing a classic hollow red reversal candle - 'often', a sign of a floor.

With no real news due until tomorrow, no major moves should be expected though.


VIX,daily

sp'daily5b

Summary

A quiet start to the week, I do expect things to get a lot more active with each successive day. Its opex on Friday, so...expect some chop!

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are marginally lower, but again, so far, its all noise.


sp,daily5b

Summary

The above is one possible scenario for the next week or so. I am not very confdient of it, but its something to keep in mind, especially if we do get a bounce in the 1360s.

Good wishes for the week ahead