Monday, 6 August 2012

11am update - top of the channel

We're at the very top of the hourly cycle channel.

It is arguably a good place for day/swing traders to start a new short-position, with simple short-stops somewhere in the 1400/05 level.


sp'60min



Summary

As noted earlier...I'm looking for a flat close. I'd guess we will go briefly red at some point later today, but..close flat.

Not exactly riveting action, but a good day for those looking to re-short..or exit remaining long blocks.


10am update - quiet Monday

I'm really not expecting anything from today. I'd guess we see morning gains turn slightly red later in the day, with a flat close.

If today is the top of another small wave, then look for falls Tue/Wed, with yet another attempt to break the lower channel later this week.


sp'daily5


Summary

Near trend remains up, but we're at the top of the channel..and its been a very reliable channel. A move down to sp'1350 is viable near the end of this week, but that would still not violate the broader trend.


Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Well,  here we go again, another week at the big casino wheel. Futures are marginally higher, sp+2pts to 1392.


sp'60min



sp'daily5


Summary

I'd guess we close today flat, and maybe put in at least 2 o3 choppy days before any moderate decline to again re-test the lower channel line.

Good wishes for the week ahead