Wednesday, 1 August 2012

3pm update - closing hour weakness?

So....the Fed do nothing, as expected. Market drops 50 dow pts on the news...rallies to evens...but is slipping again. This is kinda muted action though, and the VIX sure ain't saying 'panic!'

The bears once again have a six week window until the next FOMC of Thur' Sept'13th. Even a mid-way target of sp'1225/00 is an awful long way down right now.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

Most notable, the VIX remains very weak. There is ZERO sign of concern in the market this afternoon.

Lets see if we can at least close marginally red.

More after the close

2pm update - strap in..it could get real bumpy

Mere minutes until the FOMC announcement at 2.15pm. There might not be any clear direction for a good 30/45 minutes though. Whether bullish or bearish, will need to give this nonsense some time to settle.

This could easily go either way...regardless, you might need some straps on your office chairs.


Sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

VIX is holding up reasonably well, but then clearly the market makers don't want to selling overly cheap index/stock puts ahead of the Fed.
--

..lets just see what the maniacs have decided.

1pm update - awaiting the FOMC

We're in the twilight zone hour of market trading. We remain clearly in a bull flag on the hourly index cycles, although IWM has broken below its hourly flag.

Transports are severely weak, a warning of trouble later today?


sp'60min


Tranports, daily


Summary

Everything is merely in a holding pattern..awaiting to see what the maniacs on the Fed board have decided.