Good morning, welcome to another week in crazy market land!
Futures are marginally lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open around 1383 or so. There is no econ-data today, so I'd really not expect any big moves from today. Of course, after two giant up days, there is a much higher probability of at least minor upside, than even a moderate fall by the close.
It does seem like most out there, are agreed - we're due a further slight move higher into the 1390s/1400s. Even those who are still clamouring for a huge wave lower seem agreed on that.
sp'60min
sp'daily5
Summary
First, lets be clear about this...there is no sign of the current up-trend levelling, no sign of ANY turn.
The doomers could hope we are putting in a fourth - and again, smaller tower on the MACD (blue bar histogram). I suppose we might see another rollover later this week, but right now, it remains a distant and arguably weak hope.
Last week opened dramatically lower for the bears...it sure didn't end that way. We have the FOMC on Wednesday. A few are actually looking for QE to be announced this week, I don't think so..not until Thursday Sept' 13th. We have the monthly jobs data on Friday, some are looking for a negative print, clearly the summer of recovery 2012 is continuing.
Thresholds
If there is one thing that I believe is now most important of all. Until we break <1325, any decline is not to be taken seriously. Bears have been teased over and over for the past 2 months since the early June low. Only with a break under 1325 is there a chance of something major occurring. Until then, the broader up trend should be said to be continuing. For the bulls, sp'1422 is of course key, any move over that, and most of the bears will again throw in the towel - although there really aren't that many left now anyway.
Good wishes for a week that will doubtless end more dynamic than the way it is currently starting.
