Monday, 18 June 2012

11am update - the rally continues

I have little sympathy for those bears not covering at the open. They had the opportunity to close out at sp'1335. It is now seemingly very likely we'll be around 1355/65 within the next few days.

VIX is very weak, and highly suggestive of higher indexes into Wednesday. 'Fed day'.


sp'60min



sp' daily 4mth



Summary

Everything going as expected. I see the only issue as 'how good a short entry can I get?'.

The good bears.....are going to need to be patient for just another day or two.

10am update - Monday morning chop

Moderate opening losses are already starting to lessen. Those bears who were shorting at the Friday close - in anticipation of a Monday collapse..would have been wise to have hit the exit button about at the open.


sp'60min



vix'60min



Summary

Looks like the indexes are getting support at the important hourly 10MA - 1334 (and rising)

VIX is red - another sign this market still has underlying upside.

I will remain a watcher on the sidelines until sp'1355/65, preferably AFTER the FOMC announce Wed'12.30pm.

Interesting stocks to note... Ebay up... FCX weak, BKS.. was up 8%, but now -2% (rumour...false).

Oil weak...metals..moderately weak.

More across the day..as ever.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are showing dow-25, sp-2/3. That is certainly a fairly significant turn around from last nights sp +9.

I would assume its just a little tease to the bears though, and that we can still easily close moderately green - with further upside Tue/Wed to the top of my original target zone (also key fib level area) of 1360/65.


sp'60min


Summary

A long and busy week ahead. It will doubtless be filled with conflicting news and rumour about Greece/EU. So expect more crazy intra-day swings. The FOMC decision on Wednesday (12.30pm EST) will be central, and could shape the next few weeks/months of trading. I only expect QE-twist extension at the most.

There really isn't much econ-data this week, only housing.

My current plan is to re-short this market around 1355/65 this Wednesday afternoon.

Good wishes for Monday trading!